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Matt Harmon· Oct 22, 2026

Harmon picked the Lions over the Packers, the Chiefs to win in Seattle, the Bengals at Baltimore, the 49ers over the Falcons and the Rams to beat the Raiders (while the Raiders cover). His Hail Mary was that the Vikings quarterback scores four total touchdowns against the Colts, and he expected Josh Jacobs and Zach Charbonnet to play while Rashee Rice sits.

“I'm gonna go Lions. At home, coming out of a bye, I think they'll have enough answers here.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Football 301 with Nate Tice (podcast) · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks and 3 availability calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

4 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 75 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

The games in this take

7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsOct 22, 2026

    Kansas City Chiefs to beat Seahawks

    “I think Kansas City, you know, gets this one on the road in Seattle.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-167 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    3-20
    skill:
    −167
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    12

    Closing line (Oct 25): Seahawks by 3 · underdog pick, Chiefs 41%.

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  • Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsOct 22, 2026

    Detroit Lions to beat Packers

    “This is a tough one. I'm gonna go Lions. At home, coming out of a bye, I think they'll have enough answers here.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    DET
    score:
    17-20
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DET
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    12

    Closing line (Oct 25): Lions by 3.5 · favorite pick, Lions 63%.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsOct 22, 2026

    Los Angeles Rams to beat Raiders

    “I'll go with I'll go with the Rams... The Rams win Raiders cover.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+167 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    LAR
    score:
    35-21
    skill:
    167
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    LV
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    12

    Closing line (Oct 25): Rams by 3.5 · favorite pick, Rams 62%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.

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  • Game Outcome PicksCincinnati BengalsOct 22, 2026

    Cincinnati Bengals to beat Ravens

    “I'll take Cincinnati just because I I don't know what the the quarterback situation is gonna be.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+167 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    CIN
    score:
    35-13
    skill:
    167
    they picked:
    CIN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    BAL
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    12

    Closing line (Oct 25): Bengals by 3 · favorite pick, Bengals 59%.

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  • Availability CallsRashee RiceKansas City ChiefsOct 22, 2026

    “this Chiefs receiver room right now that's probably not gonna have Rashid Rice in this one (Week 7 at Seattle)”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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  • Availability CallsZach CharbonnetSeattle SeahawksOct 22, 2026

    “Zach Charbonnet, who probably plays in this game (Week 7 vs. Chiefs)”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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  • Availability CallsJosh JacobsGreen Bay PackersOct 22, 2026

    “the Packers are also getting reinforcements back in this game because Josh Jacobs is gonna play (Week 7 vs. Lions)”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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What others said about the same people

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