Mike Florio#15 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 18, 2026

Florio says the Lions' next three games — vs. the Jets, at the Panthers, at the Cardinals — are winnable, and that if all goes well Detroit will be 4-1 heading into its bye.

Published in writing · NBC SportsRead the original

2 of 3calls landed2 hits · 1 miss · all settled

66.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls

66.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

3Games calledeveryone’s picks below

#15Mike Florio’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Mike Florio said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

If all goes well, they’ll be 4-1 with two weeks to get ready for back-to-back home games against the Packers and Vikings.

Mike Florio, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was published: NBC Sports
The piece: Jack Campbell fights back tears in explaining Lions loss to Bills
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 18
PlayedSep 27–Oct 11
GradedSep 28–Oct 12

1Detroit Lions to beat Cardinals“the next three before the bye are objectively winnable: Jets, at Panthers, at Cardinals. If all goes well, they’ll be 4-1”
2Detroit Lions to beat Panthers“the next three before the bye are objectively winnable: Jets, at Panthers, at Cardinals. If all goes well, they’ll be 4-1”
3Detroit Lions to beat Jets“the next three before the bye are objectively winnable: Jets, at Panthers, at Cardinals. If all goes well, they’ll be 4-1”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Detroit Lions to beat Cardinals¹	Game Outcome Picks	Lions 45–21	100	0	+194
Detroit Lions to beat Panthers²	Game Outcome Picks	Panthers 32–26	0	100	−194
Detroit Lions to beat Jets³	Game Outcome Picks	Lions 31–24	100	100	0
3 calls · 2 hits · 1 miss · all settled			66.7	66.7

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions to beat Cardinals
What happenedLions 45–21Lions at Cardinals
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.94difficulty+194skill
How this was scored
won:
DET
score:
45-21
skill:
194
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
ARI
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions to beat Panthers
What happenedPanthers 32–26Lions at Panthers
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.94difficulty−194skill
How this was scored
won:
CAR
score:
26-32
skill:
−194
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
CAR
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this is wrong?
3Game Outcome Picks Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions to beat Jets
What happenedLions 31–24Jets at Lions
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill
How this was scored
won:
DET
score:
24-31
skill:
0
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
DET
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
66.7naive 66.7