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Christian "Spot" SorgeJan 18, 2025

Spot picked the Chiefs to beat Houston, citing a motivated Mahomes, and had the Eagles covering against the Rams.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Game Outcome PicksThe callsettled
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Christian "Spot" Sorge said

Never bet against the Chiefs. That's how I live my life.
Our reading: Kansas City Chiefs to beat Texans
The episode
Hour 1 - Donation Debate & Playoff Picks
The original
Hear the original

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidJan 17, 2025
  2. GradedAug 17, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksKansas City Chiefs

    Kansas City Chiefs to beat Texans

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Jan 18): Chiefs by 9.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 4 in 5 (81%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    KC
    score:
    14-23
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
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