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Jake Ciely#20 of 87 NFL pundits · Feb 22, 2026

Sealey gave their early 2026 quarterback ranks — Allen, Lamar, May and Daniels as their top four, Joe Burrow sixth, Daniel Jones 17th, Justin Herbert 10th, C.J. Stroud 25th and Sam Darnold 26th — plus tight ends with Isaiah Likely 13th and Dalton Kincaid down at 16.

Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 3calls landed1 hit · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled
51.4Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
66.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3 of 3Settlednone still waiting
#20Jake Ciely’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Jake Ciely said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I have Alan Lamar May Daniels as my top four.
Jake Ciely, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
The episode
FantasyPros - 2026 Fantasy Football Quarterback and Tight End Rankings & Tiers (Ep. 1968)
The original
Hear the original

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidFeb 22
  2. GradedAug 7
  1. 1Fantasy Rankings“I have Alan Lamar May Daniels as my top four... So he's at six [Burrow]... you've got him at ten [Herbert]... c J. Stroud is at ECR of twenty but you've got him at twenty five... JKM at twenty six [Darnold]... You have n't at seventeen [Daniel Jones]”
  2. 2Fantasy Rankings“Dalton Kinkaid is number nine on this list, but jake them outside of the top twelve at sixteen... Jake, you've got him at tight end thirteen [Likely]”
  3. 3Isaiah Likely to be 1st on the depth chart“Because Isaiah Likely is going to a team where he's going to be the lead option... he's going to go to a team because he's a free agent. Somebody's going to pay through the nose for him”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
“I have Alan Lamar May Daniels as my top four... So he's at six…”1Fantasy Rankings—62.550+12.5
“Dalton Kinkaid is number nine on this list, but jake them…”2Fantasy Rankings—050−50
Isaiah Likely to be 1st on the depth chart3Depth Chart CallsNo. 291.67100−8.33
3 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled51.466.7

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 fantasy rankings and 1 depth chart call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 51.4 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Fantasy Rankings

    “I have Alan Lamar May Daniels as my top four... So he's at six [Burrow]... you've got him at ten [Herbert]... c J. Stroud is at ECR of twenty but you've got him at twenty five... JKM at twenty six [Darnold]... You have n't at seventeen [Daniel Jones]”

    VerdictClose
    62.5Close · naive 50
    62.5this call50a naive guess12.5better than naive1difficulty+12.5skill
    How this was scored
    naive:
    a coin-flip ordering scores 50
    skill:
    12.5
    placed:
    9
    season:
    2025
    players:
    9
    accuracy:
    62.5
    baseline:
    50
    by position:
    QB 9: 62.5
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    could not place:
    0
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  2. 2Fantasy Rankings

    “Dalton Kinkaid is number nine on this list, but jake them outside of the top twelve at sixteen... Jake, you've got him at tight end thirteen [Likely]”

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 50
    0this call50a naive guess−50worse than naive1difficulty−50skill
    How this was scored
    naive:
    a coin-flip ordering scores 50
    skill:
    −50
    placed:
    2
    season:
    2025
    players:
    2
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    by position:
    TE 2: 0
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    could not place:
    0
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  3. 3Depth Chart CallsIsaiah Likely

    Isaiah Likely to be 1st on the depth chart

    What happenedNo. 2called No. 1 · by receptions
    91.67Hit · naive 100
    91.67this call100a naive guess−8.33worse than naive1difficulty−8.33skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    BAL
    skill:
    −8.33
    player:
    Isaiah Likely
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    91.67
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    TE
    naive slot:
    2
    actual slot:
    2
    difficulty:
    1
    measured by:
    receptions
    the naive guess:
    where he sat last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted slot:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    51.4naive 66.7

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