Tim Hasselbeck· Feb 19, 2026
Hasselbeck expects Kyler Murray to be released by Arizona, believes Malik Willis will sign somewhere as the anointed opening-day starter, and thinks Isaiah Likely can be a true No. 1 tight end who would catch over 75 passes with close to seven touchdowns as a full-season starter.
“Kyler Murray is most likely to get released.”
said on air, transcribed by us · NFL Live (podcast) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 2 player season numbers, 1 depth chart call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 30.6 out of 100, against 54.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
1They said
2What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Depth Chart CallsMalik WillisFeb 19, 2026
Malik Willis to be 1st on the depth chart
“Willis is gonna walk in as the anointed starter somewhere because I think the market's gonna dictate that.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-8.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- GB
- skill:
- -8.33
- player:
- Malik Willis
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Player Season NumbersIsaiah LikelyFeb 19, 2026
Isaiah Likely to record 75 receptions
“I think you're talking about a guy who's probably catching, you know, over 75 balls, probably getting close to, you know, seven touchdowns.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 64.42-64.42 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 32.84
- skill:
- -64.42
- what happened:
- 27
- player:
- Isaiah Likely
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 64.42
- predicted:
- 75
- statistic:
- receptions
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- 42
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 23.69
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Player Season NumbersIsaiah LikelyFeb 19, 2026
Isaiah Likely to record 7 receiving tds
“probably getting close to, you know, seven touchdowns”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 4.53
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 1
- player:
- Isaiah Likely
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 7
- statistic:
- receiving_tds
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- 6
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 3.07
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Kyler Murray to move to Arizona Cardinals
“Kyler Murray is most likely to get released. So Kyler Murray getting released, I don't think that he will be at the very top of the free agent market”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
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- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Devin DuvernayHit · 100An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
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More player season numbers
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ross JacksonPlayer Season Numbers · Tyler ShoughMiss · 4Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Chris BroussardPlayer Season Numbers · Lamar JacksonMiss · 0Broussard expects Lamar Jackson to play well but not vintage — two touchdown passes and no picks — while Derrick Henry carries the load with over 100 rushing yards. He also takes the Browns to upset the Bengals and believes Myles Garrett gets at least two sacks to break the single-season record.
- Nick WrightPlayer Season Numbers · Myles GarrettHit · 100Wright picks the Steelers to beat the Ravens outright in Pittsburgh, takes Seattle over San Francisco, and thinks the Browns lose to Cincinnati even as Myles Garrett gets the sack record.
- Nick WrightPlayer Season Numbers · Myles GarrettHit · 84Nick Wright says Myles Garrett is playing at an all-time level and might reach 25 sacks this season, and among his weekly picks he expects the Bears to beat the Steelers in an ugly low-margin home win and Seattle to win comfortably at Tennessee.
- Shannon SharpePlayer Season Numbers · T.J. WattMiss · 0On a Bengals-Steelers matchup, Sharpe took the over on several player props: Ja'Marr Chase over 74.5 receiving yards, Joe Flacco over 36.5 pass attempts, and T.J. Watt over 3.5 tackles+assists, adding that Watt will get two sacks. He also predicted Rico Dowdle would make the Pro Bowl this season.
- Rich EisenPlayer Season Numbers · Micah ParsonsClose · 56Eisen made a series of picks: Micah Parsons will out-sack any two Cowboys combined (after initially leaning the other way), the NFC North is more likely to produce a Super Bowl team than the NFC East, Eagles wins will outnumber Cowboys losses, Bo Nix/Courtland Sutton will out-touchdown Cam Ward/Calvin Ridley, and Marvin Harrison Jr./James Conner will beat Kamara/Olave in yards and TDs. He also picked the AFC West order and said Deion Sanders is more likely than Bill Belichick to have a winning record.