Mike Harmon· Jan 2, 2026
Harmon gave his Week 18 fantasy rankings — top five quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers — plus lists of 'hot plays,' 'cold sores' (players to avoid) and 'ninjas' (sneaky plays), and said Trevor Lawrence would land around a top-four fantasy quarterback finish for the season.
“So I'm gonna take Dak Prescott in that five spot.”
said on air or in an interview · Fox Sports Radio (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 3 fantasy rankings, 1 depth chart call and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 89.3 out of 100, against 48.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Fantasy RankingsJan 2, 2026
“Some of the usual suspects, Pooka Nakoua... Jamar Chase... How about Alan raw Sam Brown against the Bears... JSN going up against San Francisco... And then you got Nico Collins going up against the Indianapolis”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 50+31.8 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 31.8
- placed:
- 5
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- WR 5: 80
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Fantasy RankingsJan 2, 2026
“Let's get into your top five quarterbacks for Week eighteen... Drake May going up against Miami... Trevor Lawrence going up against Tennessee... Lamar Jackson... Brock Purdy going up against Seattle... So I'm gonna take Dak Prescott in that five spot.”
Hit · 85Scored 85a naive guess scored 50+37.1 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 37.1
- placed:
- 5
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 85
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 5: 85
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Trey Lance to be 1st on the depth chart
“Operations shutdown, Trey Lance looks like he's gonna be the starter.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LAC
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Trey Lance
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 3
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Trevor Lawrence to finish top 4 at his position, by fantasy points
“But there's Trevor Lawrence all the way up towards a top four fantasy finish for the year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+106 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 106
- player:
- Trevor Lawrence
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 27
- actual finish:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- predicted finish:
- 4
- Fantasy RankingsJan 2, 2026
“CMC going up against Seattle... Derreck Henry against Pittsburgh... John Robinson going up against New Orleans... RJ. Harvey going up against the Chargers... and then Travis etn the aforementioned he gets the number five spot here”
Hit · 90Scored 90a naive guess scored 50+42.4 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 42.4
- placed:
- 5
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 90
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- RB 5: 90
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 1
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Jacksonville JaguarsClose · 50Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
More fantasy rankings
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Rich HribarFantasy RankingsClose · 77Hribar published his post-NFL Draft top-60 rookie fantasy rankings for the 2020 season, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire vaulting to No. 1 ahead of Jonathan Taylor and J.K. Dobbins.
- Marcas GrantFantasy RankingsMiss · 25Grant says De'Von Achane deserves to be a top-three pick in fantasy drafts next season, keeps Breece Hall as the Jets' clear RB1 over Isaiah Davis, and lists his five league winners for the fantasy semifinals with Saquon Barkley on top. He also picks Josh Allen as the week's top quarterback and Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the top wide receiver.
- Andrew EricksonFantasy RankingsClose · 75Erickson laid out his own early 2026 quarterback and tight end ranks — Justin Herbert QB6, Jalen Hurts QB9, Jordan Love QB13, Baker Mayfield QB14, Kyler Murray QB19, Sam Darnold QB23; Tucker Kraft TE8, Isaiah Likely TE12, Ronde Gadsden TE13 — and predicted Kyler Murray starts somewhere in 2026 and Mike Evans stays in Tampa Bay.
- Jake CielyFantasy RankingsClose · 63Sealey gave his early 2026 quarterback ranks — Allen, Lamar, May and Daniels as his top four, Joe Burrow sixth, Daniel Jones 17th, Justin Herbert 10th, C.J. Stroud 25th and Sam Darnold 26th — plus tight ends with Isaiah Likely 13th and Dalton Kincaid down at 16.
- Jake CielyFantasy RankingsHit · 93Seely gives his own early 2026 running back board — Bijan and Gibbs on top, McCaffrey third (seventh overall), Kyren Williams tenth, Jeanty 11th and Chase Brown 12th — while ranking Skattebo, Dowdle, Pollard, Hubbard and Tucker below consensus. He also insists Kyren Williams remains a top-ten back, expects Skattebo to lead the Giants backfield and expects Rico Dowdle to leave Carolina.
- Joe PisapiaFantasy RankingsClose · 71Joe Pisapia's 2026 first round is receiver-heavy, starting with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ja'Marr Chase, insisting Amon-Ra St. Brown belongs in the top five, keeping Justin Jefferson in round one, and dropping Christian McCaffrey to 12. He also sees Omarion Hampton as a value who will be a top-10 pick a year later.