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Chad MillmanJul 18, 2025

Chad ranked their top 10 NFL quarterbacks for 2025 from a betting perspective, with Patrick Mahomes first, Josh Allen second and Baker Mayfield tenth, plus Stafford, Tua and C.J. Stroud just outside.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

57Close · out of 100
Top Player ListsThe callsettled
50A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
56.87This callout of 100
+13.74Skillafter difficulty

What Chad Millman said

So that's why Mahomes was number one to me on my outside looking in Stafford eleven, two, twelve, c. J. Stroud thirteen.
Chad Millman’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was said
The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)
The episode
The Favorites - Top 10 NFL Quarterbacks
The original
Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidJul 17, 2025
  2. GradedAug 5, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 56.9 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Top Player Lists

    “number ten. Baker Mayfield... I put Rock Party at nine... Number eight, justin Herbert... Seven. I had Jared Goff six, I had Jaden Daniels five, I had Jalen Hurts four, Joe Burrow three, Lamar two, Josh Allen one, Patrick Mahomes... on my outside looking in Stafford eleven, two, twelve, c. J. Stroud thirteen.”

    VerdictClose
    56.87Close · naive 50
    56.87this call50a naive guess6.87better than naive2difficulty+13.74skill
    How this was scored
    naive:
    a coin-flip ordering scores 50
    skill:
    13.74
    placed:
    13
    season:
    2025
    players:
    13
    accuracy:
    56.87
    baseline:
    50
    by position:
    QB 13: 56.87
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    could not place:
    0
    weeks left when called:
    18
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