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Russell Baxter· Oct 9, 2026

Baxter picks Seattle to hand San Francisco its first loss, 22-20, with the Seahawks kicking five field goals and scoring one touchdown.

“The 'Hawks will settle for five field goals and one touchdown and hand Kyle Shanahan's club their first loss of the season.”

published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 47.6 out of 100, against 43.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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1 checkable claim in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Seattle Seahawks 22 — 49ers 20

    “Russell Baxter: Seahawks 22, 49ers 20”

    Close · 48Scored 47.62a naive guess scored 43.62+7.12 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    32-29
    skill:
    7.12
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    47.62
    baseline:
    43.62
    difficulty:
    1.78
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    14
    naive home margin:
    0.32
    predicted margin:
    2

    Closing line (Oct 11): Seahawks by 3, total 46.5 · this 22–20 calls a closer game (Seahawks by 2) and fewer points (42).

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