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Award Picks

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
820
Graded
328

40% settled

Average accuracy
23.2

out of 100

Pundits
178

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
76 scored 80+252 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

328 / 820

graded

492 still pending

By season

  • 20217 of 7 graded
  • 2022103 of 103 graded
  • 20231 of 1 graded
  • 202439 of 50 graded
  • 2025178 of 196 graded
  • 20260 of 463 graded

Who is good at award picks

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every award picks take

1–25 of 820

By topic

NFL — award picks (328 graded)

Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections, The Economy. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.