Erick-Woods Erickson#6 of 21 election pundits · Nov 3, 2026
On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race.
Published in writing · Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack)Read the original
1 of 3calls landed1 hit · 2 misses · all settled
33.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
0A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
1Races calledevery call on each below
What Erick-Woods Erickson said
our reading, beside the words we read it froma GOP that loses the House but keeps the Senate
- Where it was published
- Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack)
- The piece
- S15 EP198: Hour 1 - Election Day: Republicans Finally Show Up, and Why Pastors Should Stop Selling Lesser Evils
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidNov 3
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
- 1Control of Congress“predicts Republicans lose the House but hold the Senate”
- 2Rick Jackson to win the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election“Midterm predictions: Rick Jackson over Keisha Lance Bottoms in the Georgia governor race”
- 3Control of Congress“predicts Republicans lose the House but hold the Senate”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| “predicts Republicans lose the House but hold the Senate”1 | Control of Congress | — | 100 | 0 | +100 | |
| Rick Jackson to win the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election2 | Race Winners | Keisha Lance Bottoms won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| “predicts Republicans lose the House but hold the Senate”3 | Control of Congress | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 calls · 1 hit · 2 misses · all settled | 33.3 | 0 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive3 checkable claims — 2 control of congress and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
“predicts Republicans lose the House but hold the Senate”
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1difficulty=+100skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
- chamber:
- 2026-house
- who controls it:
- Democratic
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- Democratic
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- who controlled it before:
- Republican
Rick Jackson to win the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election
What happenedKeisha Lance Bottoms woncalled Rick Jackson0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2026-governor-ga
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Keisha Lance Bottoms
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Rick Jackson
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
“predicts Republicans lose the House but hold the Senate”
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
- chamber:
- 2026-senate
- who controls it:
- Democratic
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- who controlled it before:
- Republican
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
33.3naive 0
The race in this take
every call on eachMore control of congress
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.