Mike Florio#15 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 16, 2026
Predicts a comfortable Colts home win, 27-10 over Tennessee.
Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original
What Mike Florio said
The Colts can’t afford to lose at home to a team that can’t do much on either side of the ball.
- Where it was published
- Sports Illustrated
- The piece
- Titans vs. Colts Expert Game Picks: Tennessee Projected to Fall to an AFC South Rival For Second Straight Week
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 16
- PlayedOct 18
- GradedOct 18
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 23.8 out of 100, against 35.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
Score PredictionsIndianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts 27 — Titans 10
What happenedTitans 26–20called Colts by 17 · lost by 623.81Miss · naive 35.7123.81this call−35.71a naive guess=−11.9worse than naive×1.72difficulty=−20.48skillClosing line (Oct 18): Colts by 6.5, total 43.5 · this 27–10 calls a bigger Colts win (by 17) and fewer points (37).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 26-20
- skill:
- −20.48
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 23.81
- baseline:
- 35.71
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- naive home margin:
- 0
- predicted margin:
- 17
The game in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
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