RealClearPolitics Podcast

We've got 226 Democrats, 185 Republican seats, 24 toss-up... Yeah. I think, I think these are on the more aggressive side. But, again, when we look at at what we see in the polling right now, it's warranted.

And and and JB Pritzker is still gonna win reelection, and the legislature is still gonna be super majority democrat.

We've got 226 Democrats, 185 Republican seats, 24 toss-up, two eighteen is what's needed for the majority... I think these are on the more aggressive side. But... it's warranted.

So anything between, like, Republicans getting 48 seats and 51 seats, I think, wouldn't be terribly surprising.

And then there's the incumbents you don't really wanna be having to defend like Max Miller in Ohio seven, which we actually have is leaning pickup right now.

So it's it's a real problem for Republicans, in this midterm election. It's it's probably the number one reason that they're likely to lose the house.

She's gonna get, reelected, though. Don't you think, Tom? Yeah. Sure. Okay. I mean There is that. Arkansas.

She's gonna get, reelected, though. Don't you think, Tom? Yeah. Sure. Okay. I mean There is that. Arkansas.

And North Carolina looks like, it's a state that is is going to go Democrat.

And, you know, Georgia's another one. Republicans are you know, any money invested in Georgia right now is probably just, you know, burning it

I think Roger Kimball mentioned something about, you know, hey. I I may be ahead of the curve on this, but mark it down. Republicans are gonna hold the senate.

he has, Darlene Graham up one point in South Carolina... Still, it's hard to imagine that it will vote for a Democrat

I think best case scenario is they they end up with a tie. You know, and JD Vance can can break ties, but the the idea that they would actually gain seats in the selection seems, at this point, very unlikely.

So, I mean, I I I think this clinches it for her. I know that state a little bit. People don't move to Alaska, so they have to have their speech monitored.

I think maybe Jon Ossoff, he's gonna win reelection, probably.

he's been governor here for two terms. He's gonna be elected to a third term in November

He's gonna be the last statewide democrat elected in a while, I think, in that state. So that's that's gone... So West Virginia is one seat.

We we might get the senate, you know, going Republican. We kinda half expect that.

My judgment at this stage and why I decided to go public is that the last week, the negative narrative led by mister Trump himself... And in a tight election, that's why I'm optimistic that Harris will win tonight.

Ohio is now dependably Republican statewide elections. Donald Trump's poised to carry it

I mean, I think the senate ranges from, like, 51 Republicans to 57

West Virginia is gone for the Democrats. They know that.

Well, first of all, do you believe that Harris is gonna win Iowa? No.

I mean, I think the senate ranges from, like, 51 Republicans to 57, and we don't know where in that mix it's gonna land.

Now is Kamala Harris gonna win Iowa? I would argue probably not.