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2026 Maine gubernatorial election

Governors · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Hannah Pingree95¢
  • Robert B. Charles4¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 4 polls in 21 days · through September 30, 2026

  • Hannah Pingree48.8%
  • Robert B. Charles37.3%
  • Rick Bennett6.7%

Hannah Pingree by 11.5 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 11 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
co/efficient2026-09-28 – 2026-09-301240 LVHannah Pingree 47% · Robert B. Charles 38% · Rick Bennett 6%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research · for AARP2026-09-20 – 2026-09-22982 LVHannah Pingree 52% · Robert B. Charles 39% · Rick Bennett 6%
The New York Times/Siena University · for Portland Press Herald, Maine Trust for Local News2026-09-15 – 2026-09-22619 LVHannah Pingree 47% · Robert B. Charles 34% · Rick Bennett 8%
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov2026-08-28 – 2026-09-14650 LVHannah Pingree 49% · Robert B. Charles 38%
YouGov2026-09-02 – 2026-09-081334 LVHannah Pingree 47% · Robert B. Charles 36% · Rick Bennett 2%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · for Fox News2026-08-06 – 2026-08-101000 RVHannah Pingree 49% · Robert B. Charles 38% · Rick Bennett 9%
University of New Hampshire2026-07-15 – 2026-07-201178 LVHannah Pingree 49% · Robert B. Charles 35% · Rick Bennett 6%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · for Fox News2026-06-23 – 2026-06-271003 RVHannah Pingree 53% · Robert B. Charles 42%
The New York Times/Siena University · for Portland Press Herald2026-06-19 – 2026-06-26608 LVHannah Pingree 50% · Robert B. Charles 36% · Rick Bennett 8%
The New York Times/Siena University · for Portland Press Herald2026-06-19 – 2026-06-26608 LVHannah Pingree 55% · Robert B. Charles 40%
The Public Sentiment Institute2026-06-08 – 2026-06-08497 LVNirav Shah 47% · Robert B. Charles 31%

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (2)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.