2026 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 1
House · November 3, 2026 · not yet held
The ballot
- Rob Wittman (Republican, incumbent)—
- Shannon Taylor (Democratic)—
Beside the pundits
Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.
The polls · VoteHub · 1 poll in 21 days · through September 28, 2026
- Shannon Taylor50.0%
- Rob Wittman46.0%
Shannon Taylor by 4.0 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.
The 4 most recent polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 2026-09-23 – 2026-09-28 | 609 LV | Shannon Taylor 50% · Rob Wittman 46% |
| Ragnar Research Partners (REP) · for Conservatives for America | 2026-03-10 – 2026-03-12 | 400 LV | Dem 44% · Rep 42% |
| Public Policy Polling (DEM) · for House Majority PAC | 2025-08-08 – 2025-08-09 | 541 RV | Rep 47% · Dem 47% |
| Public Policy Polling (DEM) · for House Majority PAC | 2025-08-08 – 2025-08-09 | 541 RV | Rob Wittman 41% · Shannon Taylor 40% |
What the field called
Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.
- Shannon Taylor1 pick
Every claim about this race (1)
Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.
Kirk Bado: Shannon Taylor wins VA-01 House seat (2026)
Race Winners · Oct 2, 2026 · 2026 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 1 · the take
Pending