Chuck Todd#2 of 21 election pundits · Nov 2, 2026

In their final pre-election episode, Todd forecast a strong Democratic night: Democrats winning the House almost regardless, Rob Sand becoming Iowa's next governor, Sherrod Brown winning Ohio by three or four points with a likely Democratic sweep of Ohio's two top races, Abbott edging Texas 50-48, Republicans slightly favored in the Kansas governor's race, and Republicans having almost no chance of saving Virginia's 1st and 2nd congressional districts.

Said on air or in an interview · The Chuck ToddCastHear the original

5 of 5calls landed5 hits · 3 waiting

100Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

0A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

7Races calledevery call on each below

#2Chuck Todd’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What Chuck Todd said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

And Rob Sand is going to be the next governor of Iowa.

Chuck Todd, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: The Chuck ToddCast
The episode: Full Episode - Haley Stevens Lights Her Career On Fire + How To Watch The Election Results
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidNov 2
Election DayNov 3
GradedNov 10

1Democratic to win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election“but I think that a Democratic sweep of Ohio, you know, which I think feels more likely than not, at least in those two races”
2Control of Congress“I mean, they're going to win the House, you know, almost no matter what”
3Rob Sand to win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election“And Rob Sand is going to be the next governor of Iowa.”
4Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 1“Turnout in Northern Virginia is going to be presidential level. They have almost no chance at saving the first or the second.”
5Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 2“They have almost no chance at saving the first or the second.”
6Race Margins“I think Sherrod Brown was winning this race anyway. but I think it was going to be super close. I don't think it's going to be that close anymore. When I say close, I think it's a three or four point race rather than a one or two point race.”
7Abbott at 2 points in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election“50 to 48 feels like if you were to make me say, make a prediction, I'd probably go 50-48 Abbott.”
8Republicans to win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election“I wonder, Republicans are slightly favored to win the governor's race.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Democratic to win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election¹	Race Winners	Amy Acton won	100	0	+100
“I mean, they're going to win the House, you know, almost no…”²	Control of Congress	—	100	0	+100
Rob Sand to win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election³	Race Winners	Rob Sand won	100	0	+100
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 1⁴	Race Winners	Shannon Taylor won	100	0	+100
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 2⁵	Race Winners	Elaine Luria won	100	0	+100
“I think Sherrod Brown was winning this race anyway. but I think…”⁶	Race Margins	—	—	—	—
Abbott at 2 points in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election⁷	Race Margins	—	—	—	—
Republicans to win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election⁸	Race Winners	—	—	—	—
8 calls · 5 hits · 3 waiting			100	0

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

8 checkable claims — 5 race winners, 2 race margins and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

5 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Race Winners
Democratic to win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election
What happenedAmy Acton woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-governor-oh
election year:
2026
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
feels more likely than not
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Amy Acton
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 Ohio gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Amy Acton
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
2Control of Congress
“I mean, they're going to win the House, you know, almost no matter what”
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2026
skill:
100
topic:
elections
in their words:
almost no matter what
result from:
wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
chamber:
2026-house
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Democratic
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
3Race Winners
Rob Sand to win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election
What happenedRob Sand woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-governor-ia
election year:
2026
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Rob Sand
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 Iowa gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Rob Sand
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
4Race Winners
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 1
What happenedShannon Taylor woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-house-va-01
election year:
2026
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
almost no chance at saving the first or the second
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Shannon Taylor
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Shannon Taylor
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
5Race Winners
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 2
What happenedElaine Luria woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-house-va-02
election year:
2026
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
almost no chance at saving the first or the second
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Elaine Luria
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Elaine Luria
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
6Race Margins
“I think Sherrod Brown was winning this race anyway. but I think it was going to be super close. I don't think it's going to be that close anymore. When I say close, I think it's a three or four point race rather than a one or two point race.”
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
7Race Margins
Abbott at 2 points in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
8Race Winners
Republicans to win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 0

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