Scott Bogman· Feb 20, 2026
Bogman's mock picks: Arvel Reese to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauigoa to Cleveland at 6, Keldric Faulk to Kansas City at 9, Sonny Styles to Dallas at 12, Cashius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kayden McDonald to San Francisco at 27 and Anthony Hill to Denver at 30.
“I'll take the risk for the Cardinals and take rvel risk. Rvel recent number three.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
10 checkable claims — 10 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 19 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 10 have settled, averaging 64.5 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pick12They said
7What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksSonny StylesDallas CowboysFeb 20, 2026
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 12
“Easiest picking the draft from me, Sonny styles and linebackers out of Ohio State”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.64 against a shuffle’s 50+33.64 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 33.64
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 83.64
- Mock Draft PicksK.C. ConcepcionCleveland BrownsFeb 20, 2026
K.C. Concepcion to be picked at number 24
“I went with Casey Kcepsi on the wide receiver from Texas A and M. I think he's the most obvious fit here for the Browns.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 81.67 against a shuffle’s 50+31.67 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.67
- player:
- K.C. Concepcion
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 24
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.67
- Mock Draft PicksFrancis MauigoaCleveland BrownsFeb 20, 2026
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 6
“we're gonna go with Francis Moultnoah, the offensive tackle out of Miami”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.9 against a shuffle’s 50+36.9 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.9
- player:
- Francis Mauigoa
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.9
Kayden McDonald to be picked at number 27
“this is Kaden McDonald, the interior defensive alignement from Ohio State”
Close · 68Scored 67.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.9 against a shuffle’s 50+36.9 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.9
- player:
- Kayden McDonald
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 67.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 36
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 67.71
- predicted pick:
- 27
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.9
- Mock Draft PicksAnthony HillDenver BroncosFeb 20, 2026
Anthony Hill to be picked at number 30
“Denver Anthony Hill linebacker Texas. Let's go.”
Miss · 27Scored 27.26 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.9 against a shuffle’s 50+36.9 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.9
- player:
- Anthony Hill
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 27.26
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 60
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 27.26
- predicted pick:
- 30
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.9
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseArizona CardinalsFeb 20, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3
“I'll take the risk for the Cardinals and take rvel risk. Rvel recent number three”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.9 against a shuffle’s 50+36.9 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.9
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.9
Cashius Howell to be picked at number 15
“I'm gonna give him cash Us how the edge rusher out of Texas A and M.”
Miss · 32Scored 32.42 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.9 against a shuffle’s 50+36.9 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.9
- player:
- Cashius Howell
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 32.42
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 41
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 32.42
- predicted pick:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.9
- Mock Draft PicksAvieon TerrellMinnesota VikingsFeb 20, 2026
Avieon Terrell to be picked at number 18
“So Avion Terrell, the cornerback out of Clemson going to the Vikings.”
Miss · 27Scored 27.26 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.9 against a shuffle’s 50+36.9 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.9
- player:
- Avieon Terrell
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 27.26
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 48
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 27.26
- predicted pick:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.9
- Mock Draft PicksMakai LemonPittsburgh SteelersFeb 20, 2026
Makai Lemon to be picked at number 21
“It's Makai Lemon for me, the wide receiver out of USC”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.9 against a shuffle’s 50+36.9 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.9
- player:
- Makai Lemon
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.9
- Mock Draft PicksKeldric FaulkKansas City ChiefsFeb 20, 2026
Keldric Faulk to be picked at number 9
“I'm going to give him Keldrick Falk the edge out of Auburn.”
Miss · 39Scored 38.56 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.9 against a shuffle’s 50+36.9 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.9
- player:
- Keldric Faulk
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 38.56
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 31
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 38.56
- predicted pick:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.9
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Jermod McCoyMiss · 2Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · R Mason ThomasClose · 59In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Caleb LomuClose · 62Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.
- Tom PelisseroMock Draft Picks · Ashton JeantyHit · 100Pelissero says Cam Ward is the Titans' pick at the top of the 2025 draft and that Travis Hunter is most likely the Browns' selection at No. 2; he also endorses Tyler Warren as a top-10 pick, expects Ashton Jeanty inside the top 10, and names five under-the-radar players who could sneak into round one, including Emeka Egbuka between picks 20-25 and Tyler Shough (whom he pegs more likely as a Day 2 pick).