Hondo Carpenter#14 of 87 NFL pundits · Aug 21, 2026
Covering the Raiders' preseason win over Houston, Carpenter predicted kicker Matt Gay has locked up the lone kicker spot on the 53-man roster, and that UDFA rookie Cian Slone will make the roster as well, while Malcolm Koonce will also make it despite an underwhelming camp.
Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original
What Hondo Carpenter said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI have reported since before the NFL Draft that he was in the driver’s seat for the kickers’ lone spot on the 53-man roster, and that remains accurate.
- Where it was published
- Sports Illustrated
- The piece
- Raiders vs. Texans: Winners & Losers; Training Camp Report 23
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidAug 21
- GradedSep 25–Oct 18
- 1Cian Slone to make the roster“UDFA rookie Cian Slone is certainly making himself known, and I think he will make it”
- 2Malcolm Koonce to make the roster“Koonce will make the roster, but he deserves scrutiny when others like Johnson and Slone are flashing.”
- 3Matt Gay to make the roster“A great 52-yard field goal and solid kicking have all but solidified his role. I have reported since before the NFL Draft that he was in the driver’s seat for the kickers’ lone spot on the 53-man roster, and that remains accurate.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cian Slone to make the roster1 | Roster Spot Calls | 1 week on a 53 | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Malcolm Koonce to make the roster2 | Roster Spot Calls | 3 weeks on a 53 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Matt Gay to make the roster3 | Roster Spot Calls | 3 weeks on a 53 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 3 calls · 3 hits · all settled | 100 | 66.7 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive3 checkable claims — 3 roster spot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Roster Spot CallsCian SloneLas Vegas Raiders
Cian Slone to make the roster
What happened1 week on a 53100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- LV
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Cian Slone
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 6
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 5
2Roster Spot CallsMalcolm KoonceLas Vegas Raiders
Malcolm Koonce to make the roster
What happened3 weeks on a 53100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- LV
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Malcolm Koonce
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
3Roster Spot CallsMatt GayLas Vegas Raiders
Matt Gay to make the roster
What happened3 weeks on a 53100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- LV
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Matt Gay
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 66.7
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Broussard · Game Outcome Picks · Las Vegas Raiders · Hit 100
Broussard picked the Ravens to beat the Bills in a shootout, 38-34, took the Raiders to upset the Jets, and said Detroit would beat the Vikings.John Breech · Score Predictions · Las Vegas Raiders · Hit 95
Breech's Week 8 score predictions include Bengals over Titans, Raiders over Jets, Rams over Chargers and Patriots over Dolphins.Tyler Sullivan · Game Outcome Picks · Las Vegas Raiders · Hit 100
Sullivan's Week 8 upset alert column flags five favorites they expect to lose: they pick the Falcons over the Buccaneers, the Raiders over the Jets, the undefeated Vikings over the Lions, the Ravens (with Lamar Jackson returning) over the Bills, and the Browns over the Steelers.Ezekiel Trezevant · Game Outcome Picks · Las Vegas Raiders · Hit 100
Trezevant argues that if the Raiders are as improved as they appeared at 3-0, they should beat the Jets in Week 8 on the road and end their four-game losing streak.
More roster spot calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.