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Cynthia Frelund#45 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 31, 2025

Freeland picked New England to beat the Falcons at home, the Chargers to blow out the Titans, and the Packers to beat the Panthers by more than 12.5 points; their model also sides with the Bills over the Chiefs. They also expect Kyler Murray, not Jacoby Brissett, to start for Arizona.

Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 3calls landed2 hits · 1 miss · all settled
63.9Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
63.9A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3 of 3Settlednone still waiting
#45Cynthia Frelund’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Cynthia Frelund said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I want Packers over twelve and a half by win by more than twelve and a half points.
Cynthia Frelund, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Around the NFL (podcast)
The episode
Week 9 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund
The original
Hear the original
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Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidOct 31, 2025
  2. GradedAug 7, 2026
  1. 1Kyler Murray to be 1st on the depth chart“I think it's possible that Jonathan Gannon's like, let's throw out Jacoby Brissett in front of the media, but we're going with Kyler.”
  2. 2Buffalo Bills to beat Chiefs“My my model's picking the Bills.”
  3. 3Green Bay Packers to beat Carolina Panthers“At home, the Packers twelve and a half. I like that one against the Carolina Panthers... Packers over twelve and a half by win by more than twelve and a half points.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Kyler Murray to be 1st on the depth chart1Depth Chart CallsNo. 291.6791.670
Buffalo Bills to beat Chiefs2Game Outcome Picks—1001000
Green Bay Packers to beat Carolina Panthers3Game Outcome Picks—000
3 calls · 2 hits · 1 miss · all settled63.963.9

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks and 1 depth chart call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 63.9 out of 100, against 63.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

1They said
2What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Depth Chart CallsKyler MurrayArizona Cardinals

    Kyler Murray to be 1st on the depth chart

    What happenedNo. 2called No. 1 · by passing yards
    91.67Hit · naive 91.67
    91.67this call91.67a naive guess0better than naive1.56difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    ARI
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Kyler Murray
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    91.67
    baseline:
    91.67
    position:
    QB
    naive slot:
    1
    actual slot:
    2
    difficulty:
    1.56
    measured by:
    passing yards
    the naive guess:
    where he sat last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted slot:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    10
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to beat Chiefs

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.56difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Nov 2): Chiefs by 2.5 · underdog pick, Bills 45%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    21-28
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    BUF
    difficulty:
    1.56
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    10
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay Packers

    Green Bay Packers to beat Carolina Panthers

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.56difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Nov 2): Packers by 12.5 · favorite pick, Packers about 7 in 8 (87%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    CAR
    score:
    16-13
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    GB
    difficulty:
    1.56
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    10
    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    63.9naive 63.9

Who this take is about

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