Cynthia Frelund· Oct 31, 2025
Freeland picked New England to beat the Falcons at home, the Chargers to blow out the Titans, and the Packers to beat the Panthers by more than 12.5 points; her model also sides with the Bills over the Chiefs. She also expects Kyler Murray, not Jacoby Brissett, to start for Arizona.
“I want Packers over twelve and a half by win by more than twelve and a half points.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
5 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks and 1 depth chart call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 78.3 out of 100, against 58.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Depth Chart CallsKyler MurrayArizona CardinalsOct 31, 2025
Kyler Murray to be 1st on the depth chart
“I think it's possible that Jonathan Gannon's like, let's throw out Jacoby Brissett in front of the media, but we're going with Kyler.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- ARI
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Kyler Murray
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsOct 31, 2025
Buffalo Bills to beat Chiefs
“My my model's picking the Bills.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 21-28
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersOct 31, 2025
Green Bay Packers to beat Carolina Panthers
“At home, the Packers twelve and a half. I like that one against the Carolina Panthers... Packers over twelve and a half by win by more than twelve and a half points.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CAR
- score:
- 16-13
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- GB
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsOct 31, 2025
New England Patriots to beat Falcons
“I'm going to go with New England to cover I know five and a half it's at home”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 23-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles ChargersOct 31, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to beat Titans
“I'm looking at this Chargers team and I'm looking at what's going on the Titans... I just don't understand how you stop the Chargers at half capacity.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAC
- score:
- 27-20
- skill:
- 156
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TEN
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Ralph VentreRoster Spot Calls · Christian BenfordMiss · 0Ventre expects Christian Benford's toe injury to sideline him for at least the Week 4 game against New England, and believes the Bills will have to add a cornerback to the 53-man roster this week — likely by moving Benford to injured reserve — with practice squad rookie Kani Walker the most likely player elevated.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.