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Deirdre WalshSep 18, 2024

Walsh said Senate Democrats are very unlikely to keep their majority given the map, effectively calling the chamber for Republicans, and pointed to Jon Tester in Montana as the most vulnerable Democrat.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The NPR Politics PodcastHear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Control of CongressThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+106Skillafter difficulty

What Deirdre Walsh said

Democrats face extremely long odds at retaining control of the senate.
Deirdre Walsh’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was said
The NPR Politics Podcast
The episode
Reproductive Rights Fight Continues To Define Campaign
The original
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  1. SaidSep 18, 2024
  2. Election DayNov 5, 2024
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Control of Congress

    “Democrats face extremely long odds at retaining control of the senate. There's just a really rough map.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.06difficulty+106skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2024
    skill:
    106
    topic:
    elections
    in their words:
    Democrats face extremely long odds at retaining control of the senate
    result from:
    senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
    chamber:
    2024-senate
    who controls it:
    Republican
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Republican
    days before the vote when called:
    47
    difficulty:
    1.06
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2024-11-05
    who controlled it before:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?
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More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.