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Dwight FreeneySep 25, 2026

Freeney said the Chargers' volume of mistakes is too great to fix in a week and that fans shouldn't expect Los Angeles to beat Buffalo.

Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Bills 24–16What happenedChargers at Bills
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Dwight Freeney said

I would not hold my breath if you're a big charges fan holding that they can win in this game.
Our reading: Buffalo Bills to beat chargers
Where it was said
First Things First (podcast)
The episode
Falcons beat Packers, Chiefs ‘will blowout’ Dolphins, BUD List, Upset Alert & Nick’s Picks
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidSep 25
  2. PlayedSep 27
  3. GradedSep 28

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to beat chargers

    What happenedBills 24–16Chargers at Bills
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 27): Bills by 7 · favorite pick, Bills about 3 in 4 (73%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    16-24
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    BUF
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    Think this is wrong?

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