Geoff SchwartzSep 25, 2026

Filling in on the chips segment, Schwartz took Jacksonville to beat New England, the Bengals to beat the Steelers, and the Cowboys to beat the Ravens on the Brazil field.

Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 3calls landed1 hit · 2 misses · all settled

33.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls

66.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

3Games calledeveryone’s picks below

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Geoff Schwartz said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I'm taking Jacksonville for five tips here.

Geoff Schwartz, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: First Things First (podcast)
The episode: Falcons beat Packers, Chiefs ‘will blowout’ Dolphins, BUD List, Upset Alert & Nick’s Picks
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 25
PlayedSep 27
GradedSep 28

1Jacksonville Jaguars to beat New England Patriots“I am way more confident than you are in this game. I'm taking Jacksonville for five tips here.”
2Cincinnati Bengals to beat Steelers“So if if the voodoo is gone completely, it might have been more chips, but I'll keep two right now on the Bengals.”
3Dallas Cowboys to beat Ravens“If this game is close, I trust the cowboys to close out this game a little bit better on this weird turf... but I'll trust the Cowboys here”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat New England Patriots¹	Game Outcome Picks	Jaguars 35–6	100	100	0
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Steelers²	Game Outcome Picks	Steelers 30–27	0	100	−189
Dallas Cowboys to beat Ravens³	Game Outcome Picks	Ravens 34–31	0	0	0
3 calls · 1 hit · 2 misses · all settled			33.3	66.7

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat New England Patriots
What happenedJaguars 35–6Patriots at Jaguars
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Jaguars by 3 · favorite pick, Jaguars 59%.
How this was scored
won:
JAX
score:
6-35
skill:
0
they picked:
JAX
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
JAX
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Steelers
What happenedSteelers 30–27Bengals at Steelers
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.89difficulty−189skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Bengals by 3.5 · favorite pick, Bengals 62%.
How this was scored
won:
PIT
score:
27-30
skill:
−189
they picked:
CIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
PIT
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
3Game Outcome Picks Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to beat Ravens
What happenedRavens 34–31Ravens at Cowboys
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Ravens by 3 · underdog pick, Cowboys 40%.
How this was scored
won:
BAL
score:
34-31
skill:
0
they picked:
DAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
DAL
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
33.3naive 66.7

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Rich Eisen · Trade and Signing Calls · Micah Parsons · Miss 0
Eisen expects Myles Garrett to be traded before the draft and says the Browns will then take Abdul Carter with their early first-round pick; they also predict Buffalo will end up paying James Cook and that Micah Parsons will remain a Cowboy and get their money from Dallas, likely late in the process.
Randy Gurzi · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Hudson · Miss 0
Gurzi predicts the Cowboys' 17-man practice squad, naming each player they expect Dallas to sign, including a surprise addition of released Giants tackle Evan Neal. They also predict Jaydon Blue will be claimed off waivers by another team and that Sam Williams will land elsewhere.
Jeff Cavanaugh · Roster Spot Calls · Marist Liufau · Hit 100
Building their projected Cowboys 53-man roster on defense, Jeff keeps five interior linemen (Kenny Clark, Quentin, Tito Obonia, LT Overton, Bullard), six edge rushers including Von Miller, Malachi Lawrence and Marist Liufau while cutting Sam Williams, four linebackers with Jayshawn Barham starting, six corners including rookie Devin Moore, and four safeties including Marquise Bell.
Jesse Holley · Roster Spot Calls · Marist Liufau · Hit 100
Holley expects Jay Toia to stick on the defensive line, Marist Liufau to make the team as a special teamer, Devin Moore to make the roster, and Joe Milton to be the backup quarterback ahead of Sam Howell.
Moe Moton · Roster Spot Calls · Marist Liufau · Miss 0
Moton rated Liufau a 9-out-of-10 on their trade probability meter, arguing that with Dallas' crowded edge room they are a long shot to make the 53-man roster and is either a trade or cut candidate.
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Dallas Cowboys · Close 76
Prisco gives score predictions for every Week 9 NFL game, picking the Bengals to rout the Falcons in Madrid, the Cowboys to rebound at Indianapolis, and the Jaguars to win in Baltimore without Lamar Jackson.

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.
Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.