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CBS NewsOct 18, 2026

CBS News' in-house election estimates give Democrats the advantage to win control of the House in the midterms, while Democrats need four seats to take the Senate.

Published in writing · Face the Nation transcripts (CBS News)Read the original

100Hit · out of 100
Control of CongressThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+102Skillafter difficulty

What CBS News said

CBS estimates Democrats have the edge to take the House.
CBS News’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was published
Face the Nation transcripts (CBS News)
The piece
Full transcript of "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Oct. 18, 2026
The original
Read the original
Read it wrong?
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  1. SaidOct 18
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Control of Congress

    “CBS estimates Democrats have the edge to take the House. They need four seats to take the Senate.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.02difficulty+102skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    102
    topic:
    elections
    in their words:
    have the edge to take the House
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
    chamber:
    2026-house
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Democratic
    days before the vote when called:
    15
    difficulty:
    1.02
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    who controlled it before:
    Republican
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