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Tony FuscoSep 11, 2026

In their "100% lock pick of the week," Tony Fusco predicted the Eagles would shut out the Commanders in their Week 1 matchup by a score of 21-0, with Saquon Barkley scoring on the opening drive and Jalen Hurts hitting DeVonta Smith for another touchdown.

Said on air or in an interview · Fox Sports Radio (podcast)Hear the original

55Close · out of 100
Eagles 24–22What happenedcalled Eagles by 21 · won by 2
93.97A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
54.76This callout of 100
−78.41Skillafter difficulty

What Tony Fusco said

leading to a final score of Eagles 21, Commanders 0
Our reading: Philadelphia Eagles 21 — Commanders 0
Where it was said
Fox Sports Radio (podcast)
The episode
The Paulie & Tony Fusco Show - Why Drake Maye SUCKS at football, 49ers UNFAIR start, 100% lock NFL prediction
The original
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  1. SaidSep 10
  2. PlayedSep 13
  3. GradedSep 15

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 54.8 out of 100, against 94 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsPhiladelphia Eagles

    Philadelphia Eagles 21 — Commanders 0

    What happenedEagles 24–22called Eagles by 21 · won by 2
    54.76Close · naive 93.97
    54.76this call93.97a naive guess−39.21worse than naive2difficulty−78.41skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Eagles by 6, total 43.5 · this 21–0 calls a bigger Eagles win (by 21) and fewer points (21).

    How this was scored
    score:
    22-24
    skill:
    −78.41
    they picked:
    PHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    54.76
    baseline:
    93.97
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    18
    naive home margin:
    −0.53
    predicted margin:
    21
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