Nick Wright· Aug 27, 2025
Nick Wright walked through the Browns' quarterback situation and then gave leans and bets on every AFC team's win total, offering concrete win-count expectations for several clubs plus a call on Brock Bowers.
“I think that we have Mike Tomlin's first losing season as Aaron Rodgers' final season.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
13 checkable claims — 8 season win totals, 3 depth chart calls, 1 playoff pick and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 14 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 13 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 48.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
winsTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
13 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Season Win TotalsNew England PatriotsAug 27, 2025
New England Patriots to finish with 9–10 wins
“I think the Patriots win nine or ten games, can make the playoffs, and I will go over on the New England Patriots.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 0+40 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NE
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- 40
- what happened:
- 14
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 9–10 wins (9–10 wins)
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsJoe FlaccoCleveland BrownsAug 27, 2025
Joe Flacco to be 1st on the depth chart
“the Browns start the season, they're bad. Third of the way into the season, they pull the plug on Flacco.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CIN
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Joe Flacco
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsDillon GabrielCleveland BrownsAug 27, 2025
Dillon Gabriel to be 1st on the depth chart
“Third of the way into the season, they pull the plug on Flacco. They go to Dylan Gabriel. They're still quite bad.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CLE
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Dillon Gabriel
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsBuffalo BillsAug 27, 2025
Buffalo Bills to finish with 12 wins
“I feel like the Bills are a twelve and five team. I don't think they're getting to thirteen wins.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 75+50 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- naive:
- 10.75
- skill:
- 50
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsMiami DolphinsAug 27, 2025
Miami Dolphins to finish with 7 wins
“I will say it's a seven and ten Dolphins year, and I will go slightly under.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 75+50 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- MIA
- naive:
- 8.25
- skill:
- 50
- what happened:
- 7
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksNew England PatriotsAug 27, 2025
New England Patriots to make the playoffs
“I think the Patriots win nine or ten games, can make the playoffs”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NE
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsCincinnati BengalsAug 27, 2025
Cincinnati Bengals to finish with 9 wins
“the Bengals have a carbon copy year of last year. They win nine games, they missed the playoffs, and they fire their head coach.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 45-10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CIN
- naive:
- 8.75
- skill:
- -10
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 45
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsHouston TexansAug 27, 2025
Houston Texans to finish with 10 wins
“I don't think they're a dominant team... but I think they can get to ten wins.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 45+30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- HOU
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 45
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsDenver BroncosAug 27, 2025
Denver Broncos to finish with 7 wins
“I think it is more than on the board that this team goes seven and ten. They are more likely to go seven and ten than ten and seven.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 5-10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- -10
- what happened:
- 14
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 5
- predicted:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsKansas City ChiefsAug 27, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 13 wins
“Twelve and five would disappoint me. I expect thirteen and four or better.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- naive:
- 11.75
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsLos Angeles ChargersAug 27, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to finish with 9 wins
“I think they probably go nine and eight and just miss out on the playoffs.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 75-30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- naive:
- 9.75
- skill:
- -30
- what happened:
- 11
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Positional FinishesBrock BowersLas Vegas RaidersAug 27, 2025
Brock Bowers to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards
“I think brock Bowers is going to have the best statistical season of any tight end.”
Miss · 25Scored 25a naive guess scored 25+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Brock Bowers
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 25
- position:
- TE
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 1
- actual finish:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Depth Chart CallsShedeur SandersCleveland BrownsAug 27, 2025
Shedeur Sanders to be 3rd on the depth chart
“he started camp fourth string, he stayed fourth string. He's now third string because one of the strings is on the Raiders... he is fairly right now their third best option to starting quarterback”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CLE
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · Dallas CowboysHit · 100Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Green Bay PackersClose · 40Sherman previewed every division: he picked Seattle to win the NFC West on a tiebreaker over San Francisco (both 11-11 wins), the Lions over the Packers in the North, the Eagles to run away with the East, Tampa Bay in the South, and Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens' division rivals in the AFC. He picked an Eagles–Chiefs Super Bowl with Philadelphia repeating, Joe Burrow for MVP, and gave a top-five power ranking.
- John MiddlekauffSeason Win Totals · San Francisco 49ersClose · 60Middlekauff says Denver's floor is ten wins, predicts Miami implodes to four or five wins and a top-three-or-four draft slot with Tyreek Hill traded, thinks the 49ers beat expectations with nine or ten wins, sees the Patriots at eight or nine wins, calls the Chargers over 9.5 a lock, expects Jared Goff to make five or six Pro Bowls, and says the Packers are flying under the radar.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Detroit LionsHit · 100Sherman picks the Chiefs to beat the Bills in the AFC Championship Game despite Buffalo's turnover dominance, and picks the Commanders to upset the Eagles in Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game. He also expects Saquon Barkley to win Offensive Player of the Year, though he hedges that voters may give it to Lamar or Josh Allen.
- Chris BrockmanSeason Win Totals · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Brockman pitched that the Eagles are the NFL's best team and that Saquon Barkley will win MVP as the first non-quarterback since 2011. He also declared the AFC playoff field already set with six weeks to go, said the Cowboys will make the playoffs, predicted Buffalo would blast the 49ers, and reiterated his earlier call that Carolina would win five or six games.
- JP AcostaSeason Win Totals · New York GiantsClose · 40Acosta expects John Harbaugh's Giants to jump to roughly seven wins in year one, and forecast several offseason moves: Aaron Rodgers returning to Pittsburgh, Daniel Jones returning to the Colts, Kirk Cousins being released by Atlanta, and Brandon Aiyuk leaving San Francisco.