Nick Wright#49 of 87 NFL pundits · Aug 27, 2025
Nick Wright walked through the Browns' quarterback situation and then gave leans and bets on every AFC team's win total, offering concrete win-count expectations for several clubs plus a call on Brock Bowers.
Said on air or in an interview · What's Wright? with Nick Wright (podcast)Hear the original
What Nick Wright said
I think that we have Mike Tomlin's first losing season as Aaron Rodgers' final season.
- Where it was said
- What's Wright? with Nick Wright (podcast)
- The episode
- What's Wright - Nick Wright’s 2025 NFL PREDICTIONS, win total OVERS/UNDERS + SLEEPER picks
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidAug 26, 2025
- GradedAug 7–Sep 18, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Win Totals | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Depth Chart Calls | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Playoff Picks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Positional Finishes | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| All | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
How each call scored
13 checkable claims — 8 season win totals, 3 depth chart calls, 1 playoff pick and 1 positional finish — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 14 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 13 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 48.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
winsTheir call against what actually happened.
Season Win Totals2 hits · 3 close calls · 3 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
New England Patriots to finish with 9–10 wins
“I think the Patriots win nine or ten games, can make the playoffs, and I will go over on the New England Patriots.”
14called 9–10 wins20Miss20 − 0 naive = 20 × 2 difficulty = +40 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NE
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- 40
- what happened:
- 14
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- 9–10 wins (9–10 wins)
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Buffalo Bills to finish with 12 wins
“I feel like the Bills are a twelve and five team. I don't think they're getting to thirteen wins.”
12called 12100Hit100 − 75 naive = 25 × 2 difficulty = +50 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- naive:
- 10.75
- skill:
- 50
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 75
- they said:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Miami Dolphins to finish with 7 wins
“I will say it's a seven and ten Dolphins year, and I will go slightly under.”
7called 7100Hit100 − 75 naive = 25 × 2 difficulty = +50 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- MIA
- naive:
- 8.25
- skill:
- 50
- what happened:
- 7
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 75
- they said:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Cincinnati Bengals to finish with 9 wins
“the Bengals have a carbon copy year of last year. They win nine games, they missed the playoffs, and they fire their head coach.”
6called 940Close40 − 45 naive = −5 × 2 difficulty = −10 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- CIN
- naive:
- 8.75
- skill:
- −10
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 45
- they said:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Houston Texans to finish with 10 wins
“I don't think they're a dominant team... but I think they can get to ten wins.”
12called 1060Close60 − 45 naive = 15 × 2 difficulty = +30 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- HOU
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 45
- they said:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Denver Broncos to finish with 7 wins
“I think it is more than on the board that this team goes seven and ten. They are more likely to go seven and ten than ten and seven.”
14called 70Miss0 − 5 naive = −5 × 2 difficulty = −10 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- −10
- what happened:
- 14
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 5
- they said:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 13 wins
“Twelve and five would disappoint me. I expect thirteen and four or better.”
6called 130Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- KC
- naive:
- 11.75
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Los Angeles Chargers to finish with 9 wins
“I think they probably go nine and eight and just miss out on the playoffs.”
11called 960Close60 − 75 naive = −15 × 2 difficulty = −30 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- naive:
- 9.75
- skill:
- −30
- what happened:
- 11
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 75
- they said:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Depth Chart Calls3 hitsShow ▸Hide ▾
Joe Flacco to be 1st on the depth chart
“the Browns start the season, they're bad. Third of the way into the season, they pull the plug on Flacco.”
No. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 91.67 naive = 8.33 × 2 difficulty = +16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- CIN
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Joe Flacco
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Dillon Gabriel to be 1st on the depth chart
“Third of the way into the season, they pull the plug on Flacco. They go to Dylan Gabriel. They're still quite bad.”
No. 2called No. 1 · by passing yards91.67Hit91.67 − 100 naive = −8.33 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- CLE
- skill:
- −16.67
- player:
- Dillon Gabriel
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Shedeur Sanders to be 3rd on the depth chart
“he started camp fourth string, he stayed fourth string. He's now third string because one of the strings is on the Raiders... he is fairly right now their third best option to starting quarterback”
No. 1called No. 3 · by passing yards83.33Hit83.33 − 91.67 naive = −8.34 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- CLE
- skill:
- −16.67
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Playoff Picks1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
New England Patriots to make the playoffs
“I think the Patriots win nine or ten games, can make the playoffs”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NE
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Positional Finishes1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Brock Bowers to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards
“I think brock Bowers is going to have the best statistical season of any tight end.”
Finished #10called #1 · by receiving yards25Miss25 − 25 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Brock Bowers
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 25
- position:
- TE
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 1
- actual finish:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 1
Who this take is about
New England Patriots, Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns, Dillon Gabriel, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders, Shedeur Sanders
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Damonza Byrd · Season Win Totals · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
Nick Wright's co-host picks the Jaguars over as their favorite of the six over bets and calls the Baltimore/Buffalo division-winner parlay a safe one.Gregg Rosenthal · Season Win Totals · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
Rosenthal's Week 1 picks: the Giants win at Washington, the Lions beat the Packers, and the Jaguars beat the Panthers; they also like the Jets over the Steelers and the Dolphins over the Colts, and expects Jacksonville to clear 7.5 wins.Gregg Rosenthal · Season Win Totals · Dallas Cowboys · Miss 0
Rosenthal expects a high-scoring Eagles-Cowboys kickoff game, guesses a scoreline around 41-27, still believes Dallas can clear its win total and reach the playoffs, likes the Giants to beat expectations with Jackson Dart taking over as starter early.Gregg Rosenthal · Season Win Totals · New Orleans Saints · Miss 0
Rosenthal's under picks and a few freebie leans: Colts under 7.5 (possibly the worst team), Commanders under 9.5, Saints under 5.5 (possibly 2-15), Bears under 8.5, plus stated likes on Dolphins under 8.5, Giants over 5.5 and Ravens over 11.5.Gregg Rosenthal · Season Win Totals · Detroit Lions · Miss 0
Rosenthal made a series of over/under win-total picks: Lions over 10.5, Colts under 7.5, Vikings over 8.5, Jets over 5.5, Cowboys over 7.5 (and over 8 in a side challenge), Commanders under 9.5, Saints under 5.5, Bears under 8.5. They also predicted the Cowboys win 10 games and make the playoffs, and the Jets go 7-10.Danny Parkins · Season Win Totals · Pittsburgh Steelers · Hit 100
Filling in for Colin Cowherd, Parkins gave over/under picks for all 32 NFL teams for the 2025 season, plus specific win-total projections for several clubs.