Gregg Rosenthal· Aug 28, 2025
Rosenthal's under picks and a few freebie leans: Colts under 7.5 (possibly the worst team), Commanders under 9.5, Saints under 5.5 (possibly 2-15), Bears under 8.5, plus stated likes on Dolphins under 8.5, Giants over 5.5 and Ravens over 11.5.
“It is the Indianapolis Colt. Let's go under.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
6 checkable claims — 6 season win totals — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 52.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
wins9They said
5What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Season Win TotalsWashington CommandersAug 28, 2025
Washington Commanders to finish with 9 wins
“I'll vote Commanders under nine and a half.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 0+40 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- WAS
- naive:
- 10.25
- skill:
- 40
- what happened:
- 5
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsIndianapolis ColtsAug 28, 2025
Indianapolis Colts to finish with 7 wins
“It is the Indianapolis Colt. Let's go under.”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 95-30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- IND
- naive:
- 8.25
- skill:
- -30
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 95
- predicted:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsBaltimore RavensAug 28, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to finish with 12 wins
“The Ravens over eleven and a half doesn't take a lot of guts, but I do think they'll they'll get there.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 55-70 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- naive:
- 10.25
- skill:
- -70
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 55
- predicted:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsNew York GiantsAug 28, 2025
New York Giants to finish with 6 wins
“The Giants over five and a half takes the little guts, but I do believe in it.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 65-10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYG
- naive:
- 5.75
- skill:
- -10
- what happened:
- 4
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 65
- predicted:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsChicago BearsAug 28, 2025
Chicago Bears to finish with 8 wins
“going Bears under for the fourth straight year, even though I do think they will be better eight and a half”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 15+50 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CHI
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- 50
- what happened:
- 11
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 15
- predicted:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsNew Orleans SaintsAug 28, 2025
New Orleans Saints to finish with 5 wins
“I'm taking Saints under five and a half before anyone else does”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 85-10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NO
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- -10
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 85
- predicted:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Baltimore RavensHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsMiss · 0Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · Dallas CowboysHit · 100Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Green Bay PackersClose · 40Sherman previewed every division: he picked Seattle to win the NFC West on a tiebreaker over San Francisco (both 11-11 wins), the Lions over the Packers in the North, the Eagles to run away with the East, Tampa Bay in the South, and Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens' division rivals in the AFC. He picked an Eagles–Chiefs Super Bowl with Philadelphia repeating, Joe Burrow for MVP, and gave a top-five power ranking.
- Nick WrightSeason Win Totals · New England PatriotsMiss · 20Nick Wright walked through the Browns' quarterback situation and then gave leans and bets on every AFC team's win total, offering concrete win-count expectations for several clubs plus a call on Brock Bowers.
- John MiddlekauffSeason Win Totals · San Francisco 49ersClose · 60Middlekauff says Denver's floor is ten wins, predicts Miami implodes to four or five wins and a top-three-or-four draft slot with Tyreek Hill traded, thinks the 49ers beat expectations with nine or ten wins, sees the Patriots at eight or nine wins, calls the Chargers over 9.5 a lock, expects Jared Goff to make five or six Pro Bowls, and says the Packers are flying under the radar.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Cowherd takes the Titans over their five-and-a-half win total on the strength of Cam Ward and Brian Callahan, calls New England an eight-to-nine win team, picks Green Bay to win the NFC North, expects the Giants to lose all four games to Washington and Philadelphia, and sketches a quarterback ranking with C.J. Stroud around 10th and Baker Mayfield 11th.
- Nick WrightSeason Win Totals · Denver BroncosMiss · 20Nick Wright gave his early AFC win-total leans: overs on the Jets, Ravens, Jaguars, Chiefs and Raiders, plus projected win ranges for the Dolphins, Texans, Chargers and Broncos, and predicted the Raiders take Ashton Jeanty at No. 6.