Gregg Rosenthal#39 of 87 NFL pundits · Aug 28, 2025
Rosenthal made a series of over/under win-total picks: Lions over 10.5, Colts under 7.5, Vikings over 8.5, Jets over 5.5, Cowboys over 7.5 (and over 8 in a side challenge), Commanders under 9.5, Saints under 5.5, Bears under 8.5. They also predicted the Cowboys win 10 games and make the playoffs, and the Jets go 7-10.
Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original
What Gregg Rosenthal said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI'm taking the Lions over ten and a half as my first pick.
- Where it was said
- Around the NFL (podcast)
- The episode
- Over/Unders with Nick Wright
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidAug 28, 2025
- GradedAug 7–Oct 9, 2026
- 1Detroit Lions to finish with 11 wins“I'm taking the Lions over ten and a half as my first pick.”
- 2Minnesota Vikings to finish with 9 wins“let's go Vikings over eight and a half”
- 3Dallas Cowboys to make the playoffs“I have them in the playoffs like the Cowboys, this year.”
- 4Dallas Cowboys to finish with 10 wins“I'm gonna go Cowboys over seven and a half... I think they're gonna win ten games. I have them in the playoffs like the Cowboys, this year.”
- 5New York Jets to finish with 7 wins“So I like the Jets to go like seven and ten. I feel good about over five and a halfs.”
- 6Micah Parsons: a roster call with no direction stated“Assuming Michaeh Parsons is going to be on the team. And I am assuming that... history tells us he will be on that team.”
- 7Position Group Rankings“I love their defensive line. I mean, I think it could be the best edge group in the league.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions to finish with 11 wins1 | Season Win Totals | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Minnesota Vikings to finish with 9 wins2 | Season Win Totals | 9 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Dallas Cowboys to make the playoffs3 | Playoff Picks | Missed the playoffs | 0 | 100 | −200 | |
| Dallas Cowboys to finish with 10 wins4 | Season Win Totals | 7 | 40 | 85 | −90 | |
| New York Jets to finish with 7 wins5 | Season Win Totals | 3 | 20 | 25 | −10 | |
| Micah Parsons: a roster call with no direction stated6 | Roster Spot Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| “I love their defensive line. I mean, I think it could be the…”7 | Position Group Rankings | — | — | — | — | |
| 7 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 3 misses · 2 waiting | 32 | 62 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive7 checkable claims — 4 season win totals, 1 playoff pick, 1 position group ranking and 1 roster spot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
5 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 32 out of 100, against 62 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
winsTheir call against what actually happened.
1Season Win TotalsDetroit Lions
Detroit Lions to finish with 11 wins
What happened9called over 10.50Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- DET
- naive:
- 11.75
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 9
- scored:
- hit or miss on the line
- season:
- 2025
- window:
- 11 to 17
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- over
- they said:
- over 10.5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
2Season Win TotalsMinnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings to finish with 9 wins
What happened9called over 8.5100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- MIN
- naive:
- 11.25
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 9
- scored:
- hit or miss on the line
- season:
- 2025
- window:
- 9 to 17
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- over
- they said:
- over 8.5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Dallas Cowboys to make the playoffs
What happenedMissed the playoffs0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×2difficulty=−200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- DAL
- skill:
- −200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
4Season Win TotalsDallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to finish with 10 wins
What happened7called 1040Close · naive 8540this call−85a naive guess=−45worse than naive×2difficulty=−90skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- DAL
- naive:
- 7.75
- skill:
- −90
- what happened:
- 7
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 85
- they said:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
5Season Win TotalsNew York Jets
New York Jets to finish with 7 wins
What happened3called 720Miss · naive 2520this call−25a naive guess=−5worse than naive×2difficulty=−10skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NYJ
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- −10
- what happened:
- 3
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 25
- they said:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
6Roster Spot CallsMicah ParsonsDallas Cowboys
Micah Parsons: a roster call with no direction stated
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
“I love their defensive line. I mean, I think it could be the best edge group in the league.”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
32naive 62
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.Justin Penik · Trade and Signing Calls · Aaron Jones · Hit 100
Pennock predicted Sam Darnold to Pittsburgh, Zach Baun re-signing in Philadelphia, Charvarius Ward and Jamien Sherwood to Washington, Cam Robinson to Chicago as left tackle, Cam Bynum to the Jets, Darius Slayton to the Chargers, Aaron Jones back to Minnesota and Aaron Rodgers to the Giants.Rich Eisen · Trade and Signing Calls · Micah Parsons · Miss 0
Eisen expects Myles Garrett to be traded before the draft and says the Browns will then take Abdul Carter with their early first-round pick; they also predict Buffalo will end up paying James Cook and that Micah Parsons will remain a Cowboy and get their money from Dallas, likely late in the process.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Nick Wright · Season Win Totals · Chicago Bears · Hit 100
Nick Wright lays out their season win-total picks (overs on Jaguars, Bears, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Raiders, Falcons; unders on Bengals, Colts, Broncos, Cowboys, Vikings, 49ers), playoff berth and miss calls, three division winners, a Chiefs-over-Buccaneers Super Bowl exacta, and five Week 1 picks.Damonza Byrd · Season Win Totals · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
Nick Wright's co-host picks the Jaguars over as their favorite of the six over bets and calls the Baltimore/Buffalo division-winner parlay a safe one.Nick Wright · Season Win Totals · Baltimore Ravens · Miss 0
Nick Wright predicts Shedeur Sanders stays behind Dylan Gabriel on the Browns depth chart, forecasts a season where Flacco is benched a third of the way in, Gabriel then fails, Shedeur then fails, and Cleveland drafts a quarterback next year. They also make a long list of win-total, playoff and division calls across the AFC North and beyond.Nick Wright · Season Win Totals · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
In part two of their gambling show, Nick Wright ran through NFC (and recapped AFC) win-total picks, division winners and make/miss-the-playoffs bets, backing the Chiefs, Jaguars, Raiders, Bears, Buccaneers and Falcons to clear their totals while predicting Commanders, Bucs and Rams division titles.Nick Wright · Season Win Totals · San Francisco 49ers · Miss 0
Wright's under picks: Broncos under 9.5, 49ers under 10.5, Cowboys under 8, Bengals under 9.5 with Cincinnati missing the playoffs and Zac Taylor fired.Nick Wright · Season Win Totals · Kansas City Chiefs · Miss 0
Wright picked Chiefs over 11.5, Buccaneers over 9.5, Raiders over 6.5 (plus a Raiders playoff berth), Broncos under 9.5, 49ers under 10.5, Cowboys under 8, Jaguars over 7.5, and Bengals under 9.5 with Zac Taylor fired after missing the playoffs. They also had Commanders and Eagles both 11-6 with Washington winning the NFC East.