David Nir· Oct 22, 2024
In discussing ads against a Montana ballot measure, the piece states that Republican Troy Downing is certain to win the open House seat in Montana's 2nd District, describing the dark-red district as an easy victory for him.
“Fellow Republican Troy Downing, who is running this year, is also airing a similar commercial attacking CI-126 in Montana's 2nd District, a dark red seat where he's on a glide path to victory.”
published in writing · The Downballot (newsletter) · read the original →
One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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1 checkable claim in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2024
“Fellow Republican Troy Downing, who is running this year, is also airing a similar commercial attacking CI-126 in Montana's 2nd District, a dark red seat where he's on a glide path to victory.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-mt-02
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Troy Downing
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Montana's district 2
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Troy Downing
- days before the vote when called:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace WinnersHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.