Walter CherepinskySep 15, 2026

In the Week 2 Thursday night game, they predict the Bills beat the Lions 31-24, expecting Detroit's offense to bounce back but Buffalo to prevail, with Josh Allen thriving and James Cook struggling again.

Published in writing · Walter FootballRead the original

2 of 2calls landed2 hits · all settled

96.4Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls

89.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

1Games calledeveryone’s picks below

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Walter Cherepinsky said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

Week 2 NFL Pick: Bills 31, Lions 24

Walter Cherepinsky, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was published: Walter Football
The piece: NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2026 – Early Games
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 14
PlayedSep 17
GradedSep 18

1Buffalo Bills to beat Lions“Week 2 NFL Pick: Bills 31, Lions 24”
2Buffalo Bills 31 — Lions 24“Week 2 NFL Pick: Bills 31, Lions 24”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Buffalo Bills to beat Lions¹	Game Outcome Picks	Bills 41–31	100	100	0
Buffalo Bills 31 — Lions 24²	Score Predictions	Bills 41–31	92.86	79.41	+26.08
2 calls · 2 hits · all settled			96.4	89.7

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 game outcome pick and 1 score prediction — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 96.4 out of 100, against 89.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Lions
What happenedBills 41–31Lions at Bills
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill
Closing line (Sep 17): Bills by 5.5 · favorite pick, Bills about 2 in 3 (68%).
How this was scored
won:
BUF
score:
31-41
skill:
0
they picked:
BUF
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
BUF
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this is wrong?
2Score Predictions Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills 31 — Lions 24
What happenedBills 41–31called Bills by 7 · won by 10
92.86Hit · naive 79.41
92.86this call79.41a naive guess13.45better than naive1.94difficulty+26.08skill
Closing line (Sep 17): Bills by 5.5, total 54.5 · this 31–24 calls a bigger Bills win (by 7) and more points (55).
How this was scored
score:
31-41
skill:
26.08
they picked:
BUF
season:
2026
accuracy:
92.86
baseline:
79.41
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
10
weeks left when called:
17
naive home margin:
1.35
predicted margin:
7
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
96.4naive 89.7