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Briahna Joy GrayOct 27, 2022

They said Republicans are likely to win control of the House in the midterms, warning that Social Security and Medicare cuts would then be on the table.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Rising (The Hill)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Control of CongressThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+102Skillafter difficulty

What Briahna Joy Gray said

as it's likely to be the case, republican house comes into power, and these policies really are on the chopping board
Briahna Joy Gray’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was said
Rising (The Hill)
The episode
Biden Slams ‘Mega-MAGA Trickle-Down Economics,’ Turns Midterm FOCUS To Inflation, MSM Pretends School Lockdowns Didn’t Make Learning Loss WORSE, Elon Musk Promises Not To Fire 75% Of Bird Site Staff, And More: 10.27.22
The original
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  1. SaidOct 27, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Control of Congress

    “are gonna be caught really unawares when, as it's likely to be the case, republican house comes into power, and these policies really are on the chopping board”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.02difficulty+102skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    102
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
    chamber:
    2022-house
    who controls it:
    Republican
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Republican
    days before the vote when called:
    11
    difficulty:
    1.02
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    who controlled it before:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?
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More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.