John Breech· Sep 16, 2026
A CBS Sports piece presenting analytics expert Stephen Oh's post-Week 1 simulation projects the full AFC and NFC playoff fields, every playoff game result, and the Seahawks beating the Ravens in Super Bowl LXI.
“This works in Seattle's favor with the Seahawks becoming the first NFC team in 31 years to win back-to-back Super Bowls.”
published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →
39 checkable claims — 14 playoff picks, 12 game outcome picks, 8 division winners, 2 conference champions, 2 seeding, byes and home field and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 14 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 39 have settled so far, averaging 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one.
Where this call stands in the room
Baltimore Ravens · 2026 season3 calls from 3 pundits between 1 and 7. John Breech said 1. the room's median is 1. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Eagles at Bears 23 calls
- 49ers at Seahawks 4 calls
- 49ers at Falcons 3 calls
- Ravens at Bills 7 calls
- Jaguars at Ravens 3 calls
- Chiefs at Bills 3 calls
- Bills at Broncos 3 calls
39 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksPhiladelphia EaglesSep 16, 2026
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Bears
“(3) Eagles over (6) Bears.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 7-27
- skill:
- -194
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsSep 16, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Texans
“(3) Chiefs over (6) Texans.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsSep 16, 2026
Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos
“(2) Bills over (7) Broncos ... With this game in Buffalo, there will be no miracle win for Denver.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksHouston TexansSep 16, 2026
Houston Texans to make the playoffs
“6. Texans”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksDenver BroncosSep 16, 2026
Denver Broncos to make the playoffs
“7. Broncos”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksSeattle SeahawksSep 16, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to make the playoffs
“Projected NFC playoff field: 1. Seahawks”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksPhiladelphia EaglesSep 16, 2026
Philadelphia Eagles to make the playoffs
“Projected NFC playoff field: 3. Eagles”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Division WinnersJacksonville JaguarsSep 16, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division
“4. Jaguars (AFC South champion)”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksSep 16, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to beat 49ers
“(1) Seahawks over (5) 49ers. ... it's still projecting a Seattle win.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsSep 16, 2026
Detroit Lions to beat Rams
“(2) Lions over (7) Rams.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Conference ChampionsSeattle SeahawksSep 16, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl
“Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium (1) Seahawks vs. (1) Ravens”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksSan Francisco 49ersSep 16, 2026
San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs
“5. 49ers”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksKansas City ChiefsSep 16, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“that means we'll have two new playoff teams in the AFC with the Bengals and Chiefs getting in”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksCincinnati BengalsSep 16, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs
“5. Bengals ... we'll have two new playoff teams in the AFC with the Bengals and Chiefs getting in”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles RamsSep 16, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs
“Despite their ugly loss in Week 1, the Rams are still projected to make the playoffs, but just barely. ... 7. Rams”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Conference ChampionsBaltimore RavensSep 16, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to reach the Super Bowl
“The Ravens are going to ride their high-flying offense all the way to the Super Bowl”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Division WinnersKansas City ChiefsSep 16, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs to win the division
“Our projection model is now feeling confident that the AFC West will go through Kansas City this year. ... 3. Chiefs (AFC West champion)”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seeding, Byes and Home FieldSeattle SeahawksSep 16, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to take the top seed
“1. Seahawks (NFC West champion)”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 16, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Bengals
“(4) Jaguars over (5) Bengals.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsSep 16, 2026
Detroit Lions to beat Eagles
“(2) Lions over (3) Eagles.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seeding, Byes and Home FieldBaltimore RavensSep 16, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to take the top seed
“1. Ravens (AFC North champion)”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksAtlanta FalconsSep 16, 2026
Atlanta Falcons to make the playoffs
“Projected NFC playoff field: 4. Falcons”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksChicago BearsSep 16, 2026
Chicago Bears to make the playoffs
“6. Bears”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 16, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs
“Projected AFC playoff field: 4. Jaguars”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksDetroit LionsSep 16, 2026
Detroit Lions to make the playoffs
“Projected NFC playoff field: 2. Lions”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksBuffalo BillsSep 16, 2026
Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs
“Projected AFC playoff field: 2. Bills”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Division WinnersSeattle SeahawksSep 16, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to win the division
“1. Seahawks (NFC West champion)”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Division WinnersDetroit LionsSep 16, 2026
Detroit Lions to win the division
“2. Lions (NFC North champion). In the NFC North ... The computer still thinks the Lions are in the driver's seat.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Game Outcome PicksSan Francisco 49ersSep 16, 2026
San Francisco 49ers to beat Falcons
“(5) 49ers over (4) Falcons. ... The computer likes the 49ers to take down the Falcons in Atlanta.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensSep 16, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to beat Jaguars
“(1) Ravens over (4) Jaguars. The computer loves the Ravens and has Baltimore rolling to a win here.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Super Bowl PicksSeattle SeahawksSep 16, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl
“This works in Seattle's favor with the Seahawks becoming the first NFC team in 31 years to win back-to-back Super Bowls.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Division WinnersBuffalo BillsSep 16, 2026
Buffalo Bills to win the division
“2. Bills (AFC East champion)”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksBaltimore RavensSep 16, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“Projected AFC playoff field: 1. Ravens”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Division WinnersPhiladelphia EaglesSep 16, 2026
Philadelphia Eagles to win the division
“3. Eagles (NFC East champion)”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Division WinnersAtlanta FalconsSep 16, 2026
Atlanta Falcons to win the division
“4. Falcons (NFC South champion) ... the computer likes Atlanta”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Division WinnersBaltimore RavensSep 16, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to win the division
“1. Ravens (AFC North champion)”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsSep 16, 2026
Buffalo Bills to beat Chiefs
“(2) Bills over (3) Chiefs. Josh Allen has never beaten the Chiefs in the playoffs, but he finally gets the monkey off his back here.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensSep 16, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to beat Bills
“AFC Championship (1) Ravens over (2) Bills. ... The Bills end up losing here because their defense can't stop Baltimore's offense.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksSep 16, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to beat Lions
“NFC Championship (1) Seahawks over (2) Lions. ... for the second straight year, the Seahawks roll to a win.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Minnesota VikingsMiss · 0Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Pittsburgh SteelersHit · 100Brockman argued the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Foxborough, meaning the Patriots will finish as the No. 1 seed, and called his shot that the Chargers beat Denver in Week 18. He also declared the Bears a team of destiny who will win the NFC, said the Steelers will end their playoff win drought, and that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Green Bay PackersHit · 100Eisen agreed the Bears are a team of destiny who will win the NFC, insisted the Packers will make the playoffs and won't lose at home to the Ravens, said the Steelers should make the playoffs, and endorsed the view that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Eisen gave his Week 13 power rankings, with the Rams first, Patriots second and the Cowboys entering at No. 10, and also named New England and Philadelphia as the first teams to clinch playoff spots, picked Seattle to beat Minnesota, and tabbed Drake Maye as an MVP finalist and Mike Vrabel as Coach of the Year.