John Breech#34 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 16, 2026
A CBS Sports piece presenting analytics expert Stephen Oh's post-Week 1 simulation projects the full AFC and NFC playoff fields, every playoff game result, and the Seahawks beating the Ravens in Super Bowl LXI.
Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original
What John Breech said
This works in Seattle's favor with the Seahawks becoming the first NFC team in 31 years to win back-to-back Super Bowls.
- Where it was published
- CBS Sports
- The piece
- Predicting the entire NFL playoff bracket after Week 1, including a surprise Super Bowl winner
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 16
- PlayedSep 28–Oct 4
- GradedSep 29–Oct 5
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Outcome Picks | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | |
| Playoff Picks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | |
| Conference Champions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Seeding, Byes and Home Field | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Division Winners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | |
| Super Bowl Picks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| All | 1 | 0 | 1 | 37 |
How each call scored
39 checkable claims — 14 playoff picks, 12 game outcome picks, 8 division winners, 2 conference champions, 2 seeding, byes and home field and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 14 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 39 have settled so far, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Game Outcome Picks1 hit · 1 miss · 10 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
- Jaguars 22–17Jaguars at Bengals100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.94 difficulty = +194 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 22-17
- skill:
- 194
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CIN
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Bears 27–7Eagles at Bears0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.94 difficulty = −194 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 7-27
- skill:
- −194
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
Seattle Seahawks to beat 49ers
“(1) Seahawks over (5) 49ers. ... it's still projecting a Seattle win.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos
“(2) Bills over (7) Broncos ... With this game in Buffalo, there will be no miracle win for Denver.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Seattle Seahawks to beat Lions
“NFC Championship (1) Seahawks over (2) Lions. ... for the second straight year, the Seahawks roll to a win.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Baltimore Ravens to beat Jaguars
“(1) Ravens over (4) Jaguars. The computer loves the Ravens and has Baltimore rolling to a win here.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
San Francisco 49ers to beat Falcons
“(5) 49ers over (4) Falcons. ... The computer likes the 49ers to take down the Falcons in Atlanta.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Baltimore Ravens to beat Bills
“AFC Championship (1) Ravens over (2) Bills. ... The Bills end up losing here because their defense can't stop Baltimore's offense.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Buffalo Bills to beat Chiefs
“(2) Bills over (3) Chiefs. Josh Allen has never beaten the Chiefs in the playoffs, but he finally gets the monkey off his back here.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Playoff Picks14 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“that means we'll have two new playoff teams in the AFC with the Bengals and Chiefs getting in”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs
“Despite their ugly loss in Week 1, the Rams are still projected to make the playoffs, but just barely. ... 7. Rams”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs
“5. Bengals ... we'll have two new playoff teams in the AFC with the Bengals and Chiefs getting in”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs
“Projected AFC playoff field: 4. Jaguars”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Conference Champions2 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Baltimore Ravens to reach the Super Bowl
“The Ravens are going to ride their high-flying offense all the way to the Super Bowl”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Seattle Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl
“Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium (1) Seahawks vs. (1) Ravens”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Seeding, Byes and Home Field2 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Division Winners8 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Detroit Lions to win the division
“2. Lions (NFC North champion). In the NFC North ... The computer still thinks the Lions are in the driver's seat.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Kansas City Chiefs to win the division
“Our projection model is now feeling confident that the AFC West will go through Kansas City this year. ... 3. Chiefs (AFC West champion)”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Atlanta Falcons to win the division
“4. Falcons (NFC South champion) ... the computer likes Atlanta”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Super Bowl Picks1 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl
“This works in Seattle's favor with the Seahawks becoming the first NFC team in 31 years to win back-to-back Super Bowls.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Ross Jackson · Playoff Picks · New Orleans Saints · Miss 0
Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · Minnesota Vikings · Miss 0
Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · Carolina Panthers · Hit 100
Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. They also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Pittsburgh Steelers · Hit 100
Brockman argued the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Foxborough, meaning the Patriots will finish as the No. 1 seed, and called their shot that the Chargers beat Denver in Week 18. They also declared the Bears a team of destiny who will win the NFC, said the Steelers will end their playoff win drought, and that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · Green Bay Packers · Hit 100
Eisen agreed the Bears are a team of destiny who will win the NFC, insisted the Packers will make the playoffs and won't lose at home to the Ravens, said the Steelers should make the playoffs, and endorsed the view that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · New England Patriots · Hit 100
Eisen gave their Week 13 power rankings, with the Rams first, Patriots second and the Cowboys entering at No. 10, and also named New England and Philadelphia as the first teams to clinch playoff spots, picked Seattle to beat Minnesota, and tabbed Drake Maye as an MVP finalist and Mike Vrabel as Coach of the Year.