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Lester A. Wiltfong Jr.· Oct 11, 2026

Predicts the Bears beat the Packers 28-17 behind their running game.

“The Bears will bully the Packers with their league-leading running game”

published in writing · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 19.1 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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1 checkable claim in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Chicago Bears 28 — Packers 17

    “after the Bears win, let's call it, 28 to 17”

    Miss · 19Scored 19.05a naive guess scored 50-55.1 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    7-31
    skill:
    −55.1
    they picked:
    CHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    19.05
    baseline:
    50
    difficulty:
    1.78
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    24
    weeks left when called:
    14
    naive home margin:
    0.88
    predicted margin:
    11

    Closing line (Oct 11): Bears by 1.5, total 46.5 · this 28–17 calls a bigger Bears win (by 11) and fewer points (45).

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