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Bakari SellersOct 18, 2026

On the panel, they asserted that Democrats will win control of the House, with the only open question being the size of their majority, and warned Republicans they should fear losing the Senate as well.

Said on air, transcribed by us · State of the Union (CNN)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Control of CongressThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+102Skillafter difficulty

What Bakari Sellers said

Democrats are gonna win the house.
Bakari Sellers’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was said
State of the Union (CNN)
The episode
Election Heat: Diesel, Debates, and Diplomacy
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
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  1. SaidOct 18
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Control of Congress

    “Democrats are gonna win the house. The question is by how much.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.02difficulty+102skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    102
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
    chamber:
    2026-house
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Democratic
    days before the vote when called:
    15
    difficulty:
    1.02
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    who controlled it before:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?
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More control of congress

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