Jared Dubin#60 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 18, 2026
Dubin has Houston beating Cincinnati at home and Kansas City grinding out a narrow win over Indianapolis.
Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original
What Jared Dubin said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI like the Texans to secure the win at home.
- Where it was published
- CBS Sports
- The piece
- NFL Week 2 odds, predictions, expert picks: Can blitz-heavy Vikings overtake Bears? Will Cards upset Seahawks?
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 18
- PlayedSep 20
- GradedSep 21
- 1Houston Texans 26 — Bengals 24“Jared Dubin on why he has Houston winning and covering against Cincinnati, 26-24.”
- 2Kansas City Chiefs 21 — Colts 17“Jared Dubin on why he has the Colts covering against Kansas City but the Chiefs pulling out the 21-17 win.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans 26 — Bengals 241 | Score Predictions | Bengals 20–6 | 21.43 | 15.44 | +11.62 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs 21 — Colts 172 | Score Predictions | Chiefs 33–30 | 97.62 | 91.63 | +11.62 | |
| 2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled | 59.5 | 53.5 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive2 checkable claims — 2 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 2 have settled, averaging 59.5 out of 100, against 53.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Score PredictionsHouston Texans
Houston Texans 26 — Bengals 24
What happenedBengals 20–6called Texans by 2 · lost by 1421.43Miss · naive 15.4421.43this call−15.44a naive guess=5.99better than naive×1.94difficulty=+11.62skillClosing line (Sep 20): Texans by 3, total 45.5 · this 26–24 calls a closer game (Texans by 2) and more points (50). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 20-6
- skill:
- 11.62
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 21.43
- baseline:
- 15.44
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 14
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- naive home margin:
- −0.52
- predicted margin:
- 2
2Score PredictionsKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs 21 — Colts 17
What happenedChiefs 33–30called Chiefs by 4 · won by 397.62Hit · naive 91.6397.62this call−91.63a naive guess=5.99better than naive×1.94difficulty=+11.62skillClosing line (Sep 20): Chiefs by 6, total 46.5 · this 21–17 calls a closer game (Chiefs by 4) and fewer points (38). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 30-33
- skill:
- 11.62
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 97.62
- baseline:
- 91.63
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- naive home margin:
- −0.52
- predicted margin:
- 4
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
59.5naive 53.5
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More score predictions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picked the Giants to beat the Commanders at home in the Thursday night Week 10 game, 23-14, citing New York's dominant front seven containing Jayden Daniels.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picked seven Week 10 games with final scores, including a Commanders upset of the Giants, Lions over the Patriots in Munich, Chiefs over the Falcons, Packers edging the Vikings, 49ers over the Cowboys, Bengals over the Steelers and Ravens over the Chargers. They also suggested Joe Burrow could win MVP this season.