Tom JensenAug 21, 2026
Jensen projects the 49ers' final 53-man roster ahead of the August 30 cutdown, naming a long list of players they expect to be released outright, another group they expect to be cut and return on the practice squad ("boomerang cuts"), and three borderline players (Jordan James, Jacob Cowing, James Thompson Jr.) they believe San Francisco will keep.
Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original
What Tom Jensen said
My thinking is if he was cut he would be picked up, so the 49ers choose to keep him.
- Where it was published
- Sports Illustrated
- The piece
- 49ers Shift Focus to Cutdown Day After Walloping Chargers in LA
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidAug 21
- GradedSep 25–Oct 25
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roster Spot Calls | 3 | 0 | 10 | 28 | |
| All | 3 | 0 | 10 | 28 |
How each call scored
41 checkable claims — 41 roster spot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 42 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
13 of 41 have settled so far, averaging 23.1 out of 100, against 84.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Roster Spot Calls3 hits · 10 misses · 28 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Christian Kirk to be cut
“WR: Christian Kirk, Wesley Grimes, Malik Turner, Trenton Irwin”
1 week on a 530Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Christian Kirk
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 7
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- 1 week on a 530Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Jalen Graham
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 6
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 5
Malik Turner to be cut
“WR: Christian Kirk, Wesley Grimes, Malik Turner, Trenton Irwin”
1 week on a 530Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Malik Turner
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 4
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
Sebastian Valdez to land on the practice squad
“DL Quinton Bell, Bryson Eason, Sebastian Valdez”
1 week on a 530Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Sebastian Valdez
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he lands on the practice squad
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 3
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 2
- 3 weeks on a 530Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Ashtyn Davis
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he lands on the practice squad
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
Jordan James to make the roster
“RB Jordan James – My thinking is if he was cut he would be picked up, so the 49ers choose to keep him.”
3 weeks on a 53100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jordan James
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- 3 weeks on a 530Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Siran Neal
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
James Thompson to make the roster
“DT James Thompson Jr. – Has shown enough to keep him, cutting him would be a risk.”
3 weeks on a 53100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- James Thompson
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- 3 weeks on a 530Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Luke Gifford
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- 2 weeks on a 530Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Brayden Willis
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 2
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 1
Luke Farrell to land on the practice squad
“TE Luke Farrell, Josiah Deguera”
3 weeks on a 530Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Luke Farrell
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he lands on the practice squad
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
Jacob Cowing to make the roster
“WR Jacob Cowing – He would have been a boomerang cut, but then the punt return touchdown against the Chargers. Supply and demand for punt returners is so dire Cowing would be at risk of being picked up.”
3 weeks on a 53100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Jacob Cowing
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
KhaDarel Hodge to land on the practice squad
“WR KhaDarel Hodge, Will Pauling”
3 weeks on a 530Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- KhaDarel Hodge
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he lands on the practice squad
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
Robert Jones to land on the practice squad
“OL Robert Jones, Austen Pleasants, Drake Nugent”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Doug Kramer to be cut
“OL: Brandon Parker, Doug Kramer Jr., Nick Zakelj”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Jalen Stroman to be cut
“S: Patrick McMorris, Jalen Stroman, Siran Neal”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Khalil Herbert to be cut
“On the cutting block Offense RB: Khalil Herbert, Zamir White”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Patrick McMorris to be cut
“S: Patrick McMorris, Jalen Stroman, Siran Neal”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Alex Barrett to be cut
“DL: Alex Barrett, Evan Anderson, Victor Dimukeje, Titus Leo”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Josiah Deguara to land on the practice squad
“TE Luke Farrell, Josiah Deguera”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Jakob Robinson to land on the practice squad
“DB Darrell Luter Jr., Jakob Robinson”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Titus Leo to be cut
“DL: Alex Barrett, Evan Anderson, Victor Dimukeje, Titus Leo”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Trenton Irwin to be cut
“WR: Christian Kirk, Wesley Grimes, Malik Turner, Trenton Irwin”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Wesley Grimes to be cut
“WR: Christian Kirk, Wesley Grimes, Malik Turner, Trenton Irwin”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Evan Anderson to be cut
“DL: Alex Barrett, Evan Anderson, Victor Dimukeje, Titus Leo”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Quinton Bell to land on the practice squad
“DL Quinton Bell, Bryson Eason, Sebastian Valdez”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Victor Dimukeje to be cut
“DL: Alex Barrett, Evan Anderson, Victor Dimukeje, Titus Leo”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Drake Nugent to land on the practice squad
“OL Robert Jones, Austen Pleasants, Drake Nugent”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Adrian Martinez to land on the practice squad
“Boomerang Cuts to Practice Squad QB Adrian Martinez”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Austen Pleasants to land on the practice squad
“OL Robert Jones, Austen Pleasants, Drake Nugent”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Will Pauling to land on the practice squad
“WR KhaDarel Hodge, Will Pauling”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Nick Zakelj to be cut
“OL: Brandon Parker, Doug Kramer Jr., Nick Zakelj”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Sincere McCormick to land on the practice squad
“RB Sincere McCormick”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Bryson Eason to land on the practice squad
“DL Quinton Bell, Bryson Eason, Sebastian Valdez”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Darrell Luter Jr. to land on the practice squad
“DB Darrell Luter Jr., Jakob Robinson”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Brandon Parker to be cut
“OL: Brandon Parker, Doug Kramer Jr., Nick Zakelj”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Christian Kirk, San Francisco 49ers, Jalen Graham, Malik Turner, Sebastian Valdez, Ashtyn Davis, Jordan James, Siran Neal, James Thompson, Luke Gifford, Brayden Willis, Luke Farrell, Jacob Cowing, KhaDarel Hodge, Robert Jones, Doug Kramer, Larry Worth, Jalen Stroman, Khalil Herbert, Patrick McMorris, Alex Barrett, Josiah Deguara, Hayden Rucci, Jakob Robinson, Titus Leo, Trenton Irwin, Wesley Grimes, Eli Apple, Evan Anderson, Quinton Bell, Victor Dimukeje, Nate Hobbs, Drake Nugent, Adrian Martinez, Austen Pleasants, Will Pauling, Zamir White, Nick Zakelj, Sincere McCormick, Bryson Eason, Darrell Luter Jr., Brandon Parker
Others on the same people
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More roster spot calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
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