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James FosterApr 1, 2025

Foster argues Penn State safety Kevin Winston Jr. is undervalued, ranking them 37th on their big board and expecting them to be drafted within the top 50 picks despite being covered as a Day 3 prospect.

Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original

44Close · out of 100
Went 82What happenedmocked at 50
50A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
43.91This callout of 100
—Skillafter difficulty

What James Foster said

Despite receiving the coverage of a Day 3 pick, I expect him to be selected in the top 50.
Our reading: Kevin Winston Jr. to be picked at number 50
Where it was published
The 33rd Team
The piece
2025 NFL Draft: Stop Sleeping on Penn State Safety Kevin Winston Jr.
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidApr 1, 2025
  2. GradedAug 5, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 43.9 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
Day 3 (picks 101–257)They said
82What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. Mock Draft PicksKevin Winston Jr.

    Kevin Winston Jr. to be picked at number 50

    What happenedWent 82mocked at 50
    43.91Close · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Kevin Winston Jr.
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    43.91
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    82
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    43.91
    predicted pick:
    Day 3 (picks 101–257)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

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