John Middlekauff· Oct 2, 2026
Previewing Week 4, Middlekauff leans the 49ers over Denver despite expecting the Broncos to play better, projects Denver as a likely 11- or 12-win team, and expects Trent Williams, Joey Porter Jr. and Nico Collins to be available this week.
“I guess I lean the Niners there, but you would think Denver is going to play better.”
said on air or in an interview · 3 and Out with John Middlekauff (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 3 availability calls, 1 game outcome pick and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The game in this take
- Broncos at 49ers 27 calls
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
- Game Outcome PicksSan Francisco 49ersOct 2, 2026
San Francisco 49ers to beat Denver
“I guess I lean the Niners there, but you would think Denver is going to play better.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SF
- score:
- 14-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SF
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
Closing line (Oct 4): 49ers by 3 · favorite pick, 49ers 60%.
- Season Win TotalsDenver BroncosOct 2, 2026
Denver Broncos to finish with 11–12 wins
“So, you know, Denver, you just... There's no team that you have less of a field that probably is going to end up like 11 or 12 wins.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
“Trent Williams, I would guess plays (Week 4, Niners vs. Denver)”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Availability CallsNico CollinsHouston TexansOct 2, 2026
“And it looks like, you know, Nico Collins comes back.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Availability CallsJoey BosaDallas CowboysOct 2, 2026
“I would guess, I mean, that Joey plays this week.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Pete PriscoScore Predictions · Houston TexansClose · 55Prisco gives score predictions for every Week 9 NFL game, picking the Bengals to rout the Falcons in Madrid, the Cowboys to rebound at Indianapolis, and the Jaguars to win in Baltimore without Lamar Jackson.
- Jared KochGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansHit · 100Koch predicts the Texans will beat the winless Chargers on the road in Week 9 by at least 10 points, with Houston's defense forcing a couple of turnovers to set up a multiple-score win.
- AJ HawkGame Outcome Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Hawk said the Chiefs would beat the Jets, the Seahawks would beat the Cardinals, and the 49ers would beat the Raiders, even while taking the points with the underdogs in each case.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Houston TexansHit · 81Simms gave a predicted final score for every Week 9 game, picking the Bengals, Chiefs, Broncos, Lions, Giants, Rams, Cowboys, Saints, 49ers, Patriots, Seahawks, Texans, Bears and Bills, and also said he wouldn't be shocked to see Jacksonville reach the AFC Championship Game.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansHit · 100Rogers picked straight-up winners in every Week 9 game, agreeing with Simms on all of them, and gave a 24-20 Bills score over the Vikings on Monday night.
- Nick WrightScore Predictions · Houston TexansHit · 83Wright made several outright game calls for Week 9 alongside his spread picks: Kansas City beating the Jets 31-20, Detroit winning at Miami, New England edging Green Bay by a field goal or so, Carolina winning outright over Denver, and Houston blowing out the Chargers 27-12.
More availability calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ralph VentreAvailability Calls · Keon ColemanPendingVentre states that despite being limited in all three practices with a shoulder issue and wearing a red non-contact jersey, Bills receiver Keon Coleman will be available to play in the Monday night game at Minnesota.
- Trevor RipleyAvailability Calls · Kyler MurrayPendingRipley picks the Bills to beat the Vikings in their Week 9 Monday night matchup, predicting a 27-20 Buffalo win, and expects Carson Wentz to start for Minnesota with Kyler Murray sidelined.
- Pat FitzmauriceAvailability Calls · Travis EtiennePendingIn his Week 10 waiver column, Fitzmaurice predicted Jonathan Taylor would likely be traded by the deadline, expected Travis Etienne Jr. not to return in Week 10 while Mike Evans, Garrett Wilson and Kyle Monangai return soon, and saw Shedeur Sanders holding Cleveland's starting job and Konata Mumpfield working as the Rams' top receiver.
- Jordan WoodsonAvailability Calls · Deshaun WatsonPendingWoodson expects Deshaun Watson to come back from his concussion in Week 10, limiting Shedeur Sanders to a late-season contingency, and thinks Jordan Watkins could remain San Francisco's top receiver against Dallas in Week 10 with Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr. banged up.
- Carter BahnsAvailability Calls · J.J. McCarthyPendingBahns expects J.J. McCarthy to keep playing beyond this week despite the hip/side injury scare against the Eagles.
- Bill HuberAvailability Calls · Christian WatsonPendingHuber argues Green Bay has no excuses left and will beat New England in Foxborough, and expects Christian Watson to play despite his rib injury. He also sketches the projected interior offensive line, with John Williams at center and Laken Tomlinson at right guard.