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Jared Dubin#60 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 11, 2026

Dubin picked the Texans to beat the Bills 20-17 and the Packers to win on the road at Minnesota.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

0 of 2calls landed1 close call · 1 miss · all settled
22.6Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
68.4A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Games calledeveryone’s picks below
#60Jared Dubin’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Jared Dubin said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Dubin: Texans 20, Bills 17
Jared Dubin, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
49ers stun sluggish Rams for NFL's first game in Australia; college football Week 2 preview
The original
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  1. SaidSep 11
  2. PlayedSep 13
  3. GradedSep 15
  1. 1Green Bay Packers to beat Vikings“He's got Green Bay winning on the road, even without Josh Jacobs”
  2. 2Houston Texans 20 — Bills 17“Dubin: Texans 20, Bills 17”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Green Bay Packers to beat Vikings1Game Outcome PicksVikings 39–220100−200
Houston Texans 20 — Bills 172Score PredictionsBills 36–3145.2436.83+16.83
2 calls · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled22.668.4

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 game outcome pick and 1 score prediction — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 22.6 out of 100, against 68.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay Packers

    Green Bay Packers to beat Vikings

    What happenedVikings 39–22Packers at Vikings
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Vikings by 1.5 · a toss-up, Packers 47%, Vikings 53%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    MIN
    score:
    22-39
    skill:
    −200
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    MIN
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Score PredictionsHouston Texans

    Houston Texans 20 — Bills 17

    What happenedBills 36–31called Texans by 3 · lost by 5
    45.24Close · naive 36.83
    45.24this call36.83a naive guess8.41better than naive2difficulty+16.83skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Bills by 1.5, total 44.5 · this 20–17 calls a Texans win (by 3; the line gave the Texans 50%) and fewer points (37).

    How this was scored
    score:
    36-31
    skill:
    16.83
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    45.24
    baseline:
    36.83
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    5
    weeks left when called:
    18
    naive home margin:
    −0.53
    predicted margin:
    3
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    22.6naive 68.4

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