Rachel NicholsJan 16, 2026

Nichols leaned toward the Bills beating the Broncos because of Josh Allen, and said Lamar Jackson remains a top-four quarterback in the league.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

0 of 2calls landed2 misses · all settled

0Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls

50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

2 of 2Settlednone still waiting

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Rachel Nichols said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

But if you make me make a pick, I guess I'm going to that direction. Just because of the Josh Allen factor.

Rachel Nichols, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)
The episode: THE HERD - Hour 2 - Ranking the top QBs in the NFL playoffs, did Dante Moore make a mistake?
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidJan 16
GradedAug 7

1Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos“I just think Josh Josh Allen's the best player in the field... But if you make me make a pick, I guess I'm going to that direction.”
2Lamar Jackson to finish top 4 at his position, by passing yards“You still think Lamar is in that upper echelon of top four quarterbacks in the league. / I do”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Naive	Skill
Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos¹	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	−100
Lamar Jackson to finish top 4 at his position, by passing yards²	Positional Finishes	Finished #23	0	0
2 calls · 2 misses · all settled			50

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 game outcome pick and 1 positional finish — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill
Closing line (Jan 17): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Broncos 52%.
How this was scored
won:
DEN
score:
30-33
skill:
−100
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
DEN
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
2Positional Finishes Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson to finish top 4 at his position, by passing yards
What happenedFinished #23called #4 · by passing yards
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Lamar Jackson
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
QB
ranked by:
passing yards
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
6
actual finish:
23
weeks left when called:
0
predicted finish:
4
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
0naive 50