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Logan LazarczykSep 2, 2026

Lazarczyk argues the Raiders must beat the Dolphins in Week 1, calling Miami arguably the league's worst team.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

100Hit · out of 100
Raiders 27–13What happenedDolphins at Raiders
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Logan Lazarczyk said

They must win this game.
Our reading: Las Vegas Raiders to beat Miami Dolphins
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
3 Things Raiders Must Achieve in Week 1 Against Dolphins
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidSep 2
  2. PlayedSep 13
  3. GradedSep 15

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Game Outcome PicksLas Vegas Raiders

    Las Vegas Raiders to beat Miami Dolphins

    What happenedRaiders 27–13Dolphins at Raiders
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    LV
    score:
    13-27
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    LV
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    LV
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

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