Chris Brockman· Sep 15, 2025
Brockman argued the Colts are a playoff team and Jonathan Taylor is the NFL's best running back, said Russell Wilson would hold the Giants' starting job all season, that Mac Jones will be a starting quarterback somewhere in 2026, and that Jordan Love will finish no lower than second in MVP voting.
“Jonathan Taylor is the best running back in the NFL. Colts are a playoff team.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 2 depth chart calls, 1 award pick, 1 playoff pick and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 53.3 out of 100, against 76.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Award PicksJordan LoveGreen Bay PackersSep 15, 2025
Jordan Love to win MVP
“I wanna talk about their quarterback, Jordan Love. He's gonna finish no lower than second in MVP voting this season.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jordan Love
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksIndianapolis ColtsSep 15, 2025
Indianapolis Colts to make the playoffs
“Jonathan Taylor is the best running back in the NFL. Colts are a playoff team.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- IND
- skill:
- -194
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Depth Chart CallsRussell WilsonNew York GiantsSep 15, 2025
Russell Wilson to be 1st on the depth chart
“Russell Wilson. He's gonna be the giant starting quarterback the entire season.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Russell Wilson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 17
Jonathan Taylor to finish top 1 at his position, by rushing yards
“Jonathan Taylor is the best running back in the NFL.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-16.17 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -16.17
- player:
- Jonathan Taylor
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- rushing yards
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 4
- actual finish:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Depth Chart CallsMac JonesSep 15, 2025
Mac Jones to be 1st on the depth chart
“Mac Jones is an ex Sam Darnold. He's gonna be a starting quarterback in 2026.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.17 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- -16.17
- player:
- Mac Jones
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 17
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New York GiantsHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Sherman picked winners and several exact scores across the Week 3 slate, favoring Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Baltimore, the Rams, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota, the Giants, Jacksonville and Houston, and named Kenneth Walker his MVP.
- Tom PelisseroGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Pelissero said the Giants' upcoming schedule (home vs. Tennessee, Washington, home vs. Arizona) offers three winnable games even with a backup quarterback, and that Washington's Jayden Daniels likely won't be back for that stretch. He also expects the winless Commanders to fall to 0-3 against Seattle.
- Tyler SullivanScore Predictions · Indianapolis ColtsHit · 98Sullivan projects final scores for every Week 3 game, including a Bills blowout of the reeling Chargers, a Chiefs rout in Miami, a Seahawks win over a Mariota-led Washington, and the Saints beating the Raiders in their home opener. He also expects Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Jaxson Dart all to be sidelined in Week 3, with Marcus Mariota starting for Washington.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Jonah ColemanMiss · 0In his Week 3 waiver column, Fitzmaurice makes several depth-chart calls around injuries: Jonah Coleman leading Denver's backfield, Marcus Mariota taking over in Washington, Michael Penix Jr. starting once healthy, and Malik Washington serving as Miami's top receiver, plus availability expectations for Detroit's injured safeties.
- Fox SportsDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Hit · 100Fox Sports states that a healthy Tua Tagovailoa will serve as Atlanta's backup quarterback in Week 3, with Michael Penix Jr. handling the starting duties against Green Bay.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Aaron JonesHit · 100In previewing the 10 most intriguing fantasy performers of Week 2, Fitzmaurice expects Atlanta's quarterback problems to persist with Tua Tagovailoa unlikely to play and Michael Penix Jr. not ready to return, flags Falcons slot corner Billy Bowman Jr. as a possible Week 2 returnee, and describes Aaron Jones as Minnesota's lead back and Kaelon Black as the clear backup to Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco.
- Matt SeveranceDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The CBS Sports preview backs Tampa Bay to beat Cleveland in the Bucs' Week 2 home opener, and states that Deshaun Watson — not Shedeur Sanders — will be Cleveland's starting quarterback in Week 2.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano reports Watson will start Week 2 at Tampa Bay and suggests there's little reason to expect improvement, raising the possibility Watson's five-year contract never yields more than single-digit wins.
- Rich HribarDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0Hribar expects Tua Tagovailoa to be Atlanta's starting quarterback for Week 2 while Michael Penix stays out, with Penix's return closer to Week 4. He is unenthusiastic about the Falcons' offense either way and treats Bryce Young as a fringe fantasy starter.