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Pete Prisco#51 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 17, 2026

Prisco picks the Bills 36-30 over the Lions and has the Jaguars upsetting the Broncos 23-20 in Denver.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 close call · all settled
65.5Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
80.8A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Games calledeveryone’s picks below
#51Pete Prisco’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Pete Prisco said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
The Jaguars went to Denver and beat them last December and I think they will beat them again.
Pete Prisco, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
Lions-Bills predictions for Thursday, plus NFL Week 2 picks for all 16 games and ranking each starting QB
The original
Read the original
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  1. SaidSep 17
  2. PlayedSep 17–20
  3. GradedSep 18–21
  1. 1Jacksonville Jaguars 23 — Broncos 20“Pete Prisco -- Jaguars (+2.5) 23-20 over Broncos.”
  2. 2Buffalo Bills 36 — Lions 30“Prisco's pick: Bills 36-30 over Lions”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 — Broncos 201Score PredictionsBroncos 20–1340.4882.1−80.76
Buffalo Bills 36 — Lions 302Score PredictionsBills 41–3190.4879.41+21.46
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · all settled65.580.8

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 2 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 65.5 out of 100, against 80.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Score PredictionsJacksonville Jaguars

    Jacksonville Jaguars 23 — Broncos 20

    What happenedBroncos 20–13called Jaguars by 3 · lost by 7
    40.48Close · naive 82.1

    Closing line (Sep 20): Broncos by 2.5, total 45.5 · this 23–20 calls a Jaguars win (by 3; the line gave the Jaguars 43%) and fewer points (43). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    score:
    13-20
    skill:
    −80.76
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    40.48
    baseline:
    82.1
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    7
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    −0.52
    predicted margin:
    3
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Score PredictionsBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills 36 — Lions 30

    What happenedBills 41–31called Bills by 6 · won by 10
    90.48Hit · naive 79.41
    90.48this call79.41a naive guess11.07better than naive1.94difficulty+21.46skill

    Closing line (Sep 17): Bills by 5.5, total 54.5 · this 36–30 calls a bigger Bills win (by 6) and more points (66).

    How this was scored
    score:
    31-41
    skill:
    21.46
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    90.48
    baseline:
    79.41
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    10
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    1.35
    predicted margin:
    6
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    65.5naive 80.8

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