Scott KennedyAug 30, 2026
Kennedy reports that Atlanta is expected to keep three quarterbacks on its 53-man roster: Tua Tagovailoa, Michael Penix Jr., and undrafted rookie Jack Strand.
Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original
What Scott Kennedy said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromAtlanta is expected to keep three quarterbacks: Tagovailoa, Penix, and undrafted free agent rookie Jack Strand.
- Where it was published
- Sports Illustrated
- The piece
- Stefanski Critiques Tua Tagovailoa's Performance vs. Dolphins as Roster Cuts Loom
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidAug 30
- GradedSep 25–Oct 3
- 1Michael Penix Jr. to make the roster“Atlanta is expected to keep three quarterbacks: Tagovailoa, Penix, and undrafted free agent rookie Jack Strand.”
- 2Tua Tagovailoa to make the roster“Atlanta is expected to keep three quarterbacks: Tagovailoa, Penix, and undrafted free agent rookie Jack Strand.”
- 3Jack Strand to make the roster“Atlanta is expected to keep three quarterbacks: Tagovailoa, Penix, and undrafted free agent rookie Jack Strand.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. to make the roster1 | Roster Spot Calls | 4 weeks on a 53 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Tua Tagovailoa to make the roster2 | Roster Spot Calls | 3 weeks on a 53 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Jack Strand to make the roster3 | Roster Spot Calls | 3 weeks on a 53 | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| 3 calls · 3 hits · all settled | 100 | 66.7 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive3 checkable claims — 3 roster spot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Roster Spot CallsMichael Penix Jr.Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr. to make the roster
What happened4 weeks on a 53100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- ATL
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Michael Penix Jr.
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
2Roster Spot CallsTua TagovailoaAtlanta Falcons
Tua Tagovailoa to make the roster
What happened3 weeks on a 53100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- ATL
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Tua Tagovailoa
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
3Roster Spot CallsJack StrandAtlanta Falcons
Jack Strand to make the roster
What happened3 weeks on a 53100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- ATL
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Jack Strand
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 66.7
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Curry expects Fernando Mendoza to be taken No. 1 overall by the Raiders and to be thrown into the starting lineup immediately, and they say Kirk Cousins will be released by Atlanta within weeks.Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Curry expects Fernando Mendoza to be the No. 1 overall pick and land with the Raiders, and they say Kirk Cousins will be released by Atlanta.JP Acosta · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Acosta expects John Harbaugh's Giants to jump to roughly seven wins in year one, and forecast several offseason moves: Aaron Rodgers returning to Pittsburgh, Daniel Jones returning to the Colts, Kirk Cousins being released by Atlanta, and Brandon Aiyuk leaving San Francisco.Gregg Rosenthal · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Rosenthal gave their award ballot: Drake May atop their MVP list (though they expect Matthew Stafford to actually win), Myles Garrett for Defensive Player of the Year, Bijan Robinson for Offensive Player of the Year, Tetairoa McMillan for Offensive Rookie of the Year, Carson Schwesinger for Defensive Rookie of the Year, Mike Macdonald for Coach of the Year and Broncos O-line coach Zach Strief for Assistant Coach of the Year. They also expect Kirk Cousins to be cut by Atlanta.
More roster spot calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.