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Michael O'KeefeOct 23, 2026

Stifel's chief investment strategist said that, following historical midterm patterns, they expect the House to flip away from the president's party to the Democrats, while calling the Senate essentially a toss-up and anticipating divided government.

Said on air or in an interview · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton ShowHear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Control of CongressThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+101Skillafter difficulty

What Michael O'Keefe said

by historic standards, we expect the House to flip, right? Typically goes against the president in the midterms.
Michael O'Keefe’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was said
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The episode
Hour 1 - Go Early Vote!
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 23
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Control of Congress

    “Well, number one, by historic standards, we expect the House to flip, right? Typically goes against the president in the midterms.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.01difficulty+101skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    101
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
    chamber:
    2026-house
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Democratic
    days before the vote when called:
    10
    difficulty:
    1.01
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    who controlled it before:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?
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