Brendon NelsonSep 12, 2026
Nelson expects Sam Darnold to miss the Cardinals game and likely the Commanders game, with Drew Lock starting in their place, and believes Seattle is good enough to beat both Arizona and Washington with Lock under center.
Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original
What Brendon Nelson said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromThis team is clearly good enough to beat the Cardinals and Commanders with Drew Lock.
- Where it was published
- Sports Illustrated
- The piece
- What Is the Timeline on Sam Darnold’s Return to the Field?
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 12
- PlayedSep 20–27
- GradedSep 21–28
- 1Seattle Seahawks to beat Commanders“This team is clearly good enough to beat the Cardinals and Commanders with Drew Lock.”
- 2Seattle Seahawks to beat Cardinals“This team is clearly good enough to beat the Cardinals and Commanders with Drew Lock.”
- 3Drew Lock to be 1st on the depth chart“Sam Darnold will miss the Cardinals game, he will likely miss the Commanders game... This team is clearly good enough to beat the Cardinals and Commanders with Drew Lock.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks to beat Commanders1 | Game Outcome Picks | Commanders 33–31 | 0 | 100 | −200 | |
| Seattle Seahawks to beat Cardinals2 | Game Outcome Picks | Seahawks 31–7 | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Drew Lock to be 1st on the depth chart3 | Depth Chart Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 3 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · 1 waiting | 50 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive3 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks and 1 depth chart call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Where this call stands in the room
Drew Lock · 2026 season24 calls from 18 pundits between 1 and 2. Brendon Nelson said 1. the room's median is 1. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
1Game Outcome PicksSeattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to beat Commanders
What happenedCommanders 33–31Seahawks at Commanders0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×2difficulty=−200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 31-33
- skill:
- −200
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- WAS
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
2Game Outcome PicksSeattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to beat Cardinals
What happenedSeahawks 31–7Seahawks at Cardinals100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 31-7
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- ARI
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
3Depth Chart CallsDrew LockSeattle Seahawks
Drew Lock to be 1st on the depth chart
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
50naive 50
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
Others on the same people
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Breer picks the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in their Week 9 NFC West matchup.Tyler Sullivan · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Sullivan picks the Seahawks to win in Week 9.Dave Richard · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Richard picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals.John Pluym · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Pluym picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals.Pamela Maldonado · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Maldonado picks the Seahawks in Week 9.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.