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Connor J. BenintendiSep 16, 2026

Benintendi predicts Sam Darnold misses three more games with Drew Lock starting, and forecasts Seattle winning all three games — at Arizona, at Washington, and home vs. the Chargers — to reach 4-0 after Week 4.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

1 of 3calls landed1 hit · 2 close calls · 3 waiting
58.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
60.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3Games calledeveryone’s picks below
3Waitingnot graded yet

What Connor J. Benintendi said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Overall record: 4-0
Connor J. Benintendi, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Projecting the Seahawks' Record for Sam Darnold Injury Timeline
The original
Read the original
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  1. SaidSep 16
  2. PlayedSep 20–Oct 4
  3. GradedSep 21–Oct 5
  1. 1Seattle Seahawks 28 — Chargers 13“Week 4 - Los Angeles Chargers at Seahawks Score Prediction: Seahawks 28, Chargers 13”
  2. 2Seattle Seahawks 24 — Commanders 19“Week 3 - Seahawks at Washington Commanders Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Commanders 19”
  3. 3Seattle Seahawks 20 — Arizona Cardinals 16“Week 2 - Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals Score Prediction: Seahawks 20, Cardinals 16”
  4. 4Drew Lock to be 1st on the depth chart“we will theorize that Darnold misses three more games ... and Lock remains the starter”
  5. 5Seattle Seahawks to finish with 4 wins“Overall record: 4-0”
  6. 6Availability Calls“For the sake of prediction, we will theorize that Darnold misses three more games (another reason the Seahawks may have left him off IR) and Lock remains the starter.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Seattle Seahawks 28 — Chargers 131Score PredictionsSeahawks 30–2380.9585.71−9.24
Seattle Seahawks 24 — Commanders 192Score PredictionsCommanders 33–3142.8696.35−103.78
Seattle Seahawks 20 — Arizona Cardinals 163Score PredictionsSeahawks 31–752.380+101.62
Drew Lock to be 1st on the depth chart4Depth Chart Calls————
Seattle Seahawks to finish with 4 wins5Season Win Totals————
“For the sake of prediction, we will theorize that Darnold…”6Availability Calls————
6 calls · 1 hit · 2 close calls · 3 waiting58.760.7

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

6 checkable claims — 3 score predictions, 1 availability call, 1 depth chart call and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 58.7 out of 100, against 60.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Where this call stands in the room

Drew Lock · 2026 season

25 calls from 18 pundits between 1 and 2. Connor J. Benintendi said 1. the room's median is 1. not settled yet

Connor J. Benintendi — 1the room — 25 calls from 18 punditsmedian 1

Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.

  1. 1Score PredictionsSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks 28 — Chargers 13

    What happenedSeahawks 30–23called Seahawks by 15 · won by 7
    80.95Hit · naive 85.71
    80.95this call85.71a naive guess−4.76worse than naive1.94difficulty−9.24skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    23-30
    skill:
    −9.24
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    80.95
    baseline:
    85.71
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    7
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    1
    predicted margin:
    15
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Score PredictionsSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks 24 — Commanders 19

    What happenedCommanders 33–31called Seahawks by 5 · lost by 2
    42.86Close · naive 96.35
    42.86this call96.35a naive guess−53.49worse than naive1.94difficulty−103.78skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    31-33
    skill:
    −103.78
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    42.86
    baseline:
    96.35
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    0.47
    predicted margin:
    5
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Score PredictionsSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks 20 — Arizona Cardinals 16

    What happenedSeahawks 31–7called Seahawks by 4 · won by 24
    52.38Close · naive 0
    52.38this call0a naive guess52.38better than naive1.94difficulty+101.62skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Seahawks by 3.5, total 40.5 · this 20–16 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 4) and fewer points (36).

    How this was scored
    score:
    31-7
    skill:
    101.62
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    52.38
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    24
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    −0.52
    predicted margin:
    4
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Depth Chart CallsDrew LockSeattle Seahawks

    Drew Lock to be 1st on the depth chart

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Season Win TotalsSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks to finish with 4 wins

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  6. 6Availability CallsSam DarnoldSeattle Seahawks

    “For the sake of prediction, we will theorize that Darnold misses three more games (another reason the Seahawks may have left him off IR) and Lock remains the starter.”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  7. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    58.7naive 60.7

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

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