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Amy WalterOct 30, 2022

Walter agreed with the CBS assessment that the midterms will not produce a red wave but will deliver a Republican majority in the House.

Published in writing · Face the Nation transcripts (CBS News)Read the original

100Hit · out of 100
Control of CongressThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+101Skillafter difficulty

What Amy Walter said

This is not a red wave, but it is a Republican majority. Does it match with what you're seeing? ... Yes.
Amy Walter’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was published
Face the Nation transcripts (CBS News)
The piece
Full transcript of Face the Nation, 2022-10-30
The original
Read the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 30, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Control of Congress

    “MARGARET BRENNAN: So, Amy, we just heard Anthony's scenario here. This is not a red wave, but it is a Republican majority. Does it match with what you're seeing? AMY WALTER: Yes. I think the way that Anthony pointed it out is a very smart way of thinking about this.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.01difficulty+101skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    101
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
    chamber:
    2022-house
    who controls it:
    Republican
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Republican
    days before the vote when called:
    8
    difficulty:
    1.01
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    who controlled it before:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?
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