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Logan LazarczykAug 26, 2026

Lazarczyk predicts the Raiders will beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 even without Ashton Jeanty, and that rookie Mike Washington Jr. could function as an effective three-down back if Jeanty misses time.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

100Hit · out of 100
Raiders 27–13What happenedDolphins at Raiders
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Logan Lazarczyk said

Las Vegas should have no trouble defeating the Dolphins, who enter 2026 with a makeshift roster.
Our reading: Las Vegas Raiders to beat Miami Dolphins
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Why Raiders Should Not Rush Jeanty Back for Week 1
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidAug 26
  2. PlayedSep 13
  3. GradedSep 15

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Game Outcome PicksLas Vegas Raiders

    Las Vegas Raiders to beat Miami Dolphins

    What happenedRaiders 27–13Dolphins at Raiders
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    LV
    score:
    13-27
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    LV
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    LV
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

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