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John Middlekauff#48 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 20, 2025

Middlekauff calls this the Bills' year — they beat the Chiefs next week and win the Super Bowl — and reorders the league's quarterbacks with Mahomes first, then Josh Allen, Burrow and Lamar Jackson.

Said on air or in an interview · The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)Hear the original

0 of 2calls landed2 misses · all settled
0Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
75A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2 of 2Settlednone still waiting
#48John Middlekauff’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What John Middlekauff said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I think the Bills are gonna win next week, and I think they're gonna win the super Bowl.
John Middlekauff, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)
The episode
Colin Cowherd Podcast - Bills Outlast Ravens, Eagles Beat Rams, AFC/NFC Championship Picks, National Championship Preview
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidJan 20, 2025
  2. GradedAug 5–17, 2026
  1. 1Buffalo Bills to beat Chiefs“I do think this is the Bill's year. I think the Bills are gonna win next week”
  2. 2Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl“I think the Bills are gonna win next week, and I think they're gonna win the super Bowl.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Buffalo Bills to beat Chiefs1Game Outcome Picks—0100−100
Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl2Super Bowl PicksPHI won it050−50
2 calls · 2 misses · all settled075

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 game outcome pick and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to beat Chiefs

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill

    Closing line (Jan 26): Chiefs by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Chiefs 52%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    KC
    score:
    29-32
    skill:
    −100
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Super Bowl PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl

    What happenedPHI won itpicked BUF
    0Miss · naive 50
    0this call50a naive guess−50worse than naive1difficulty−50skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    −50
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    champion:
    PHI
    runner up:
    KC
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    0naive 75

Who this take is about

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