Dan Patrick#80 of 87 NFL pundits · Feb 7, 2025
Picked the Chiefs to complete the three-peat, beating the Eagles 31-30, with Patrick Mahomes as MVP.
Said on air or in an interview · The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Dan Patrick said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromThReD Pete Chiefs again. Patrick Mahomes MV pick final score thirty one to thirty.
- Where it was said
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)
- The episode
- Hour 3 - Super Bowl picks and headlines, Josh Jacobs
- The original
- Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidFeb 7, 2025
- GradedAug 5–Oct 9, 2026
- 1Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP“Patrick Mahomes MV pick”
- 2Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl“ThReD Pete Chiefs again. Patrick Mahomes MV pick final score thirty one to thirty.”
- 3Kansas City Chiefs 31 — Eagles 30“final score thirty one to thirty. Yeah, thirty one thirty”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP1 | Award Picks | Jalen Hurts won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl2 | Super Bowl Picks | PHI won it | 50 | 50 | 0 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs 31 — Eagles 303 | Score Predictions | — | 9.52 | 62.56 | −53.04 | |
| 3 calls · 1 close call · 2 misses · all settled | 19.8 | 37.5 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive3 checkable claims — 1 award pick, 1 score prediction and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 19.8 out of 100, against 37.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Award PicksPatrick MahomesKansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP
What happenedJalen Hurts woncalled Patrick Mahomes0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- super_bowl_mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Patrick Mahomes, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Patrick Mahomes
- season:
- 2024
- who won:
- Jalen Hurts
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
2Super Bowl PicksKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl
What happenedPHI won itpicked KC50Close · naive 5050this call−50a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- champion:
- PHI
- runner up:
- KC
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
3Score PredictionsKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs 31 — Eagles 30
VerdictMiss9.52Miss · naive 62.569.52this call−62.56a naive guess=−53.04worse than naive×1difficulty=−53.04skillClosing line (Feb 9): Chiefs by 1.5, total 48.5 · this 31–30 calls a closer game (Chiefs by 1) and more points (61).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 22-40
- skill:
- −53.04
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 9.52
- baseline:
- 62.56
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- naive home margin:
- 2.28
- predicted margin:
- 1
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
19.8naive 37.5
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More score predictions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.