Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Steve HayesOct 16, 2026

Hayes, counting how often the House has changed hands since 2006, treated this election as another change of control, implying Democrats take the House.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Dispatch PodcastHear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Control of CongressThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+102Skillafter difficulty

What Steve Hayes said

And in the years since it has changed hands, I believe five times, maybe four, and this will be five, or five, and this will be six.
Steve Hayes’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was said
The Dispatch Podcast
The episode
A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave?
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 16
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Control of Congress

    “And in the years since it has changed hands, I believe five times, maybe four, and this will be five, or five, and this will be six.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.02difficulty+102skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    102
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
    chamber:
    2026-house
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Democratic
    days before the vote when called:
    18
    difficulty:
    1.02
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    who controlled it before:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?
Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.